So what are the chances the FDA panel approves this?
I've been watching AEGR and with the pending FDA review of lomitapide and I was wondering what the chances are of a favorable approval. The FDA seems to be much more favorable for patients lately then they have been in the past and that bodes well.
That said, if it IS voted for by the panel, what is the stock going to do? $30? $45?
My assessment based on what I've read is that AEGR should get a bout $300,000,000 in rtevenues for this within five years. ISIS will also get another 300 mm. There are approx 6,000 people with this rarte disease in the US and Europe, with about half in the US. Assuming that 2000 are on this @ $300K per year, that's 600mm split between two companies. I thiknk that's conservative. At 20% profit, AEGR has the potential to achieve $2-3 eps in five years. That makes this a $40-50 buyout candidate, and with 10% short, this will easily sail to $30 or at least high $20's. I think there is greater than 80% chance of approval. the side affects are gastro-intestinal, but can be managed with low fat diet. That is an easy trade off for patients that must have their blood filtered multiple times a month to remove all of the yellow cholesterol from it. The next obvious trial will be a combination of AEGR's and ISIS' drug.
from your assestment , 6000 patients, half of them in Europe. Isis got denied in europe so that leaves 3000 patients for aegr and 1500 patients in US for total 4500 patients.. appr 4500x 300,000= 1.3B. right now aegr trades at 679 million, aegre could double from here. but if FDA denies isis so aegr gets the entire market. aegr will get bought out with this scenrio..
Volume is very thin here, so expect a super spike into the mid 20's if it is a clear unreserved recommendation. If some reservations but positive rec, expect high teens. Probably will settle in 20 area on unreserved, 16 area with reservations.
Really? You consider $20s a super spike? Did you see what SRPT just did? It shot from $15 to $45 overnight then slid back down into the $30s. A move to $20 isn't even close to a super spike given how small the market cap is on this. It could easily follow the same pattern that SRPT did.