So what are the chances the FDA panel approves this?
Really? You consider $20s a super spike? Did you see what SRPT just did? It shot from $15 to $45 overnight then slid back down into the $30s. A move to $20 isn't even close to a super spike given how small the market cap is on this. It could easily follow the same pattern that SRPT did.
Listen, don't get too greedy. AEGR is going to do fine, probably double from here at approval. But the panel is just a recommendation. SRPT took off after full aproval at PDUFA. After the panel review, sell a third to half your position, then buy back in two weeks. Learn how to play the game.
You are wrong. SRPT does not even have an NDA pending. It was PIIb results and I was in when the results were announced. That was a slam dunk for people who were following the stock closely. SRPT spiked 200% because it was a rare disease with no cure, thus no competition etc. I am on the sidelines for SRPT now but with FDA approval $75 for SRPT is possible.
As for AEGR I think with positive panel approval with no researvations we may see $25 the same day and $35 within few weeks.