So what are the chances the FDA panel approves this?
My assessment based on what I've read is that AEGR should get a bout $300,000,000 in rtevenues for this within five years. ISIS will also get another 300 mm. There are approx 6,000 people with this rarte disease in the US and Europe, with about half in the US. Assuming that 2000 are on this @ $300K per year, that's 600mm split between two companies. I thiknk that's conservative. At 20% profit, AEGR has the potential to achieve $2-3 eps in five years. That makes this a $40-50 buyout candidate, and with 10% short, this will easily sail to $30 or at least high $20's. I think there is greater than 80% chance of approval. the side affects are gastro-intestinal, but can be managed with low fat diet. That is an easy trade off for patients that must have their blood filtered multiple times a month to remove all of the yellow cholesterol from it. The next obvious trial will be a combination of AEGR's and ISIS' drug.
from your assestment , 6000 patients, half of them in Europe. Isis got denied in europe so that leaves 3000 patients for aegr and 1500 patients in US for total 4500 patients.. appr 4500x 300,000= 1.3B. right now aegr trades at 679 million, aegre could double from here. but if FDA denies isis so aegr gets the entire market. aegr will get bought out with this scenrio..