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Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR) Message Board

  • diwannewyork diwannewyork Oct 17, 2012 1:01 PM Flag

    If you got in at 17-19, the risk reward ratio here is TERRIBLE...

    even if approved... I don't see this jumping that much. But the off-chance that its not? ( run-ups like this dont always mean approval)... you will see this in the single digits....

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    • As I said in another post, I don't know what will happen as every situation is different, but with a market cap of $480M, positive adcomm and eventual approval are NOT yet fully priced-in. Although it has run 37% since last Thursday, by comparison, ARNA ran 41% in the 4 days prior to Adcomm. ARNA then jumped more than 65% to $6.36 on positive adcomm. By PDUFA date it had traded up another 100% to $13. Don't kid yourself that every situation is the same and AEGR won't pop.

      46% of shares are held by the top 5 institutional holders, including JP Morgan. Another 9% are held by Execs and Directors. They won't be selling after Adcomm. Couple this is 1.7M shorted shares (Sept 28th) and a high pps of $22 after phase 3 results released 2 yrs ago . . . . I'm not sure I would be anticipating a big sell off. Plus . . . tomorrow is ISIS adcomm and if negative, I would be upset to have sold out of my long position in advance.

      It is much more likely to pop on a positve adcomm than it is to sell-off, given all information. NPSP has sold off 2.5%, but has gotten a couple of upgrades today and will likely continue to trade-up as the PDUFA date approaches. That said, NPSP has a $850M market cap and is not likely to achieve much higher net income long term than AEGR. AEGR, even with VERY conservative estimates, will have $400M in revenues and $75-$90M net income. At a small multiple of 10x earnings, that's $750-$900M market cap. We are currently around half of this.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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