I just don't get longs who held for this catalyst... I just don't get it. All the math was out there.
3k population, 30% capture, $300k per patient is $300m market potential. Estimates online range from $270-400m for an average of $320m. Then factor in 80% approval chances and using the most bullish 20% growth over 6 years, it leaves us with a pre-PDUFA high estimate $20.1/share. PDUFA is 2.5 months away, and the stock has recently risen 40%. Even if there were no catalyst dumpers this stock should drop given that PDUFA isn't tomorrow and there is potential for PDUFA delay with any application. With the catalyst dumpers, the stock was assuredly going to drop.
And now with the market potential of the drug in serious doubt? I won't be surprised to see all high 14s and higher in the red on open. You hype + short-term traders are going to quickly find yourself very unwelcome in the bio sector.
I do find it unfortunate for the investors in this stock that were banking on that 3k population being reliable. I hope for your sakes that management can reassure the shareholders that the 3k estimate is justifiable given that the FDA's restrictions on defining who should qualify for this treatment is a little shaky. However, in light of the panel discussion, decreasing market potential estimates will always have an immediate effect on the stock since it is so easily quantifiable. GLTLs, I'm not in this stock.