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Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR) Message Board

  • biotechh biotechh Oct 17, 2012 8:25 PM Flag

    Target price projection

    Here are my thoughts, I've been wrong before but this is my analysis:

    AEGR peak sales estimates: $300M - $450M
    ISIS peak sales estimates: $300 - $450M

    Total market size - $600M - $900M

    Market cap based on above should be in the range of (applying a conservative 3 times peak sales) = $900M - $1350M

    Current market cap = $487M therefore share price if approved should be between $35 - $54

    Now assuming FDA rejects ISIS, then AEGR will have the entire market to itself which means it could trade as high as $70 +. I am not sure what impact the restrictions will have on sales though.

    We may see a pop to $23 tomorrow, the float is very small and short interest is quite high at 10%.

    Good Luck !

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    • Neither ISIS or AEGR's market capital takes into account competition. Further, neither company is going to achieve their market potential instantly upon approval, that's not how it works. You have to discount the end value of the company by 20% per year for 6 years for the most optimistic projection post-approval. Lastly, you have to discount the post-approval high by another 20% for the pre-pdufa high because it's never guaranteed with the FDA. So, in essence, the pre-pdufa high is only 27% of your projected market capital, or almost $19/share...and that's a pre-pdufa high, not post-adcom high, we still got 2.5 months.

    • 100% agreed.. I was thinking of $25 by EOW with ISIS rejection.. Ur thoughts?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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