1) 13-2 Adcomm vote - While not all companies pop after such a vote, many more do than don't (think ARNA and VVUS). I don't think we can expect that type of pop, but upwards is more likely than down. As witnessed by NPSP, an Adcomm vote can cause a small sell-off, but even it only decreased 1.5% and is highly likely to start trading back up very soon.
2) Adcomm and PDUFA are two different things - Just because the Adcomm was positive does not guarantee FDA approval. Much more often than not, pps continues to climb from positve Adcomm to PDUFA date, (again, think ARNA and VVUS). There are many, many examples of this.
3) Upgrades - Price targets are based on known iinformation and best estimates of what will happen in the future. As uncertainty is taken away, upgrades are usually forthcoming. In this case, there was always a chance the Adcomm would be negative, as such, the average price target was just over $22. As we've seen already this morning, Needham upgraded and increased their target from $22 to $30, while Deutsche Bank increased theirs from $19 to $30. Expect these to keep coming.
4) Undervalued Market Cap - AEGR had NOT been overbought in the months preceeding the Adcomm, nor did it get overvalued, as many other biotechs get, along the clinical trial path. As such, market cap sits at $480M, which is very much undervalued, regardless of how conservative the sales estimates may be. There is plenty of upside.
5) Institutional holdings - 45% of shares are held by the top 5 institutional holders, including JP Morgan.
6) New Investors - AEGR is lightly traded due to low share float (22M) and high insider and institutional holdings. As such, to buy shares now and get in, you're competing for a small pool. WIth the attention coming to the company, this drives the price up ..... simply supply and demand and of course the basis of our entire market.
7) Short squeeze - As of Sept 28, there were close to 2M shorted shares, which represents a VERY large portion of the non-instiutional, non-insider holdings, whcih are likely only in the 6.5M share range. As the price increased over the past 3 days, one can only assume there was some short covering, but also those taking out new short positions based on the deemed run-up.
8) ISIS - There is NO guarantee they will have a good Adcomm. In fact, if you listened to the Adcomm yesterday (as I did the entire day), and heard the discussion over safety concerns, then read the ISIS briefing docs, you'd see this is could be a bad day for ISIS. Just look at questions 5 and 6 for today and you'll get my drift. If ISIS Adcomm goes negative, AEGR has the entire market versus a shared portion.