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Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR) Message Board

  • system_architect_enterprise system_architect_enterprise May 17, 2013 10:27 PM Flag

    EU approval is not priced in. Not even close

    Do the math.
    3,000 patients in the U.S. at $300K/year per patient is $900M/year of revenue.
    7,000 patients in the EU at $300K/year per patient is another $2.1B/year of revenue.
    Together that would be a $3B/year opportunity. Nobody is pricing in the EU yet. That is why management stated that Juxtapid was a $1B/year drug instead of a $3B/year drug.

    Follow the math through:
    US market only = $900M/year of revenue divided by 28.34M shares outstanding yields a revenue stream of $31.76/share * a P/E ratio of 20 = $635.20/share.

    Add in the EU market and it rockets to $2,117/share fair market value.

    Cut these figures in half if they can only capture 50% of the market, but studies and surveys of doctors already show that will be closer to the 80% mark, but play with it how you want.

    Claim it is a $635.20/share stock for U.S. only or a $2,117/share stock with EU approval too. Take your pick.

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