based upon those afflicted and able to afford 300K / year prescription and more affordable 100K / year prescription competition...
1.4 million Americans make more'n 344K year (the top 1% of people who filed returns in 1999 per IRS statistics).
Wiki guesstimates 1 in 500 are afflicted with homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia.
1.4 million who make enough money / 500 for those diagnosed with HoFH = 2800 potential patients.
Assume 10% of those diagnosed opt for Aegerion's Juxtapid and the others opt for much less expensive alternative or none at all, leaves 280 annual prescriptions in the USA, which equates to 84 million in annual revenue (before costs…operations/production/advertising).
The stock currently carries a market cap of 2,000 million, err 2 billion. The stock price has nothing to do with projected return (which could disappear with better and less expensive competition), the stock has become nothing more than a tool used by crooked institution/fund owners to periodically trap and loot short interest.
280 Annual Prescriptions in more in line with FDA guesstimates…
from Motley Fool article…
“Back on May 19, I wrote an article on Aegerion called “Too Many Questions Make This Thursday Mover A Sell.” Basically, the article walks the reader through all of the speculation that has created its large movement; including the company’s misleading statements regarding Juxtapid’s potential.
Juxtapid will be used to treat homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia. However, “rare cholesterol disease” is much easier when discussing the disease. My first article showed how the patient population for this disease is very scattered, as the company indicates it to be one size (3,000 total domestically) while the FDA estimates it to be significantly smaller (just 315 annual claims).”
It is one in a million with HoF, and one in five hundred with HeF. This stock will fall on its face in the future. The price of a PCSK9 inhibitor of 20K a year will seem like a bargain and one of those drugs coupled with the present treatment may be enough to bring a lot of people down close to goal. And I believe that Mipo will prevail in the long run over this stock in that it will really lower your CV risk, not just your surrogate number LDL. t
I disagree. Very doubtful that you'll bring any HoFH to goal with PCSK9 inhibitor. They're going to need something more effective like juxtapid or kynamro. Juxtapid seems to be tolerated than kynamro and I expect it to capture most of the HoFH market.
You still keep harping on the "able to afford" yet the part you keep missing is that most patients have INSURANCE for exactly this reason. Plus, 32 major insurers already cover it, so your argument falls apart immediately.
You just don't get it do you?
Sad, because this is going to cost you a LOT of money.