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Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR) Message Board

  • censored50 censored50 Jun 1, 2013 10:42 PM Flag

    Math Problem: Stock Price Doesn’t Add Up

     

    based upon those afflicted and able to afford 300K / year prescription and more affordable 100K / year prescription competition...

    1.4 million Americans make more'n 344K year (the top 1% of people who filed returns in 1999 per IRS statistics).
    Wiki guesstimates 1 in 500 are afflicted with homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia.
    1.4 million who make enough money / 500 for those diagnosed with HoFH = 2800 potential patients.
    Assume 10% of those diagnosed opt for Aegerion's Juxtapid and the others opt for much less expensive alternative or none at all, leaves 280 annual prescriptions in the USA, which equates to 84 million in annual revenue (before costs…operations/production/advertising).

    The stock currently carries a market cap of 2,000 million, err 2 billion. The stock price has nothing to do with projected return (which could disappear with better and less expensive competition), the stock has become nothing more than a tool used by crooked institution/fund owners to periodically trap and loot short interest.

    280 Annual Prescriptions in more in line with FDA guesstimates…

    from Motley Fool article…
    “Back on May 19, I wrote an article on Aegerion called “Too Many Questions Make This Thursday Mover A Sell.” Basically, the article walks the reader through all of the speculation that has created its large movement; including the company’s misleading statements regarding Juxtapid’s potential.

    Juxtapid will be used to treat homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia. However, “rare cholesterol disease” is much easier when discussing the disease. My first article showed how the patient population for this disease is very scattered, as the company indicates it to be one size (3,000 total domestically) while the FDA estimates it to be significantly smaller (just 315 annual claims).”

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AEGR
33.56+0.18(+0.54%)Oct 1 4:00 PMEDT

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