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Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR) Message Board

  • system_architect_enterprise system_architect_enterprise Jun 4, 2013 9:43 AM Flag

    Revenue estimates are $30M 2013 & $140M 2014 =$250/share value

    Consensus estimates are for $30M in 2013 and $140M in 2014 which is a growth rate of 466%.
    So while we typically use the growth rate as the multiplier for fair PE we know that 466% is not sustainable, so we can use a more conservative 100 even though the 2015 estimates are still over $500M which is a 357% year over year growth rate.

    So take that $140M and subtract 68M (current annual expenditures, ignoring other income for now) and we arrive at $72M in earnings across 28.8M shares for EPS of $2.50/share. Multiply that by the conservative 100 and it puts us a $250/share as value target in 2014.

    From the current value at $74/share, that is a year over year gain of 344% for this stock from this year until next year. That will be a nice TRIPLE over current valuations and crushes the bashers claiming current prices are inflated. If anything we should be over $100/share right now.

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