Back on May 19, I wrote an article on Aegerion called “Too Many Questions Make This Thursday Mover A Sell.” Basically, the article walks the reader through all of the speculation that has created its large movement; including the company’s misleading statements regarding Juxtapid’s potential.
Juxtapid will be used to treat homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia. However, “rare cholesterol disease” is much easier when discussing the disease. My first article showed how the patient population for this disease is very scattered, as the company indicates it to be one size (3,000 total domestically) while the FDA estimates it to be significantly smaller (just 315 annual claims).
My conclusion from the previous article is that the true number of “rare cholesterol disease” is somewhere in the middle. When considering that there is already a drug on the market, Sanofi’s Kynamro, to treat the exact same condition I predicted peak sales to be $250 million for Juxtapid – which I believe is vital to assessing and valuing the company.