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Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR) Message Board

  • hankmanoo hankmanoo Nov 27, 2013 12:40 PM Flag

    Beacon on Orphan Drugs and PLI - Part II

    Viropharma (VPHM – US), a protein-based drug (Cinryze) for the treatment of HAE, is recently bought by Shire for ~8x FY14 revenue forecasts • Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN – US) , is an ultra-rare disease company with its drug Soliris for the treatment of a rare blood disorder (1-2 cases per million). It currently trades at ~12x FY14 revenue forecast • We believe ProMetic could have significantly more value given we anticipate it to have 5 protein-based orphan drugs in clinical trials by the end of the 2014. • From a catalyst perspective, as PLI starts to file INDs and has the ability to manufacture the drugs itself (through the soon to be commissioned plant in Laval), investors (and potentially suitors) should start to see its large inherent value • In addition, PLI also has its therapeutic division (PBI 4050), which we believe could ultimately be spun-out as it starts to achieve clinical trial milestone • Consequently, we continue to see significant risk-return value in the name.

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    • if you listen to that CC you find out that the patent for juxta in regards to material content is really only until 2015. That means that the "real" patent that holds everything together for AEGR is the number titration patent. I find it extremely difficult to believe that when Americans are protesting over in India right at this time and trying to have India disallow a patent to not be valid for a biological for an antiviral product for HepC made by GILD that both Americans, and other countries, particularly Brazil, India, and China are going to pay $400K per patient per year when all they have to do is make one strength of the drug, say 11mg and use that and titrate up and down from there. And just get it in this day and age from one locale...say India over the internet. When you listen to that CC MF the speaker noted that in Europe, and ROW they are going to try and make sure that their drug is not discounted 20% below what juxta is going for in the US. This to hold their pricing power in the US. If Arabs from truly harshly ruled countries can unite and conquer powerful regimes and it is because of the info derived over the internet I think it is fair to consider that juxta "regime" could fall prey to aggressive overseas pricing made known over the internet. Just locally the example comes through clear on a much smaller scale. If you write a prescription for Fenofibrate 165mg you will pay a pretty stiff price at the pharmacy. If you write for Fenofibrate 164mg the price for that generic is considerably less. Thus if this holds true I don't believe that Mipo will be able to hold the line in regards to pricing power either as a result of this juxta slippage that could very well take place. I could be wrong....but think about different countries, you have to know that they can do as they please. If the material content patent only lasts until 2015 how can the US fault them for going around the number patent game...and it is a game

 
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