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Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR) Message Board

  • matt.berry01 matt.berry01 Nov 27, 2013 1:40 PM Flag

    AEGR’s “acceleration” does not add up

    Aegerion’s “acceleration” in patient count does not add up. In fact, its third quarter revenue is more consistent with flat patient growth.

    Is this why Aegerion suddenly stopped revealing patient counts last quarter?

    Calculating AEGR’s revenue at zero patient growth and then accounting for multi-month shipments yields a total roughly equal to AEGR’s actual reported revenue, suggesting that there was no growth in patients for the 3rd quarter.

    1. The 2nd quarter ended with 215 “patients on therapy.”
    2. CEO Beer assured us that these were “approved insurance on therapy patients.”
    3."Revenue from sales in the U.S. is generally recognized once the product has been received by the patient." ~ SEC filing
    4.“Patients on therapy” presumes receipt of the drug and therefore, revenue recognition.
    5.So an estimate of minimum 3rd quarter revenue at zero growth in the patient count should come in at 215 X $70,000 = $15 million ($295,000, quarterly, at 5% gross-to-net).
    6.Multi-month shipments have not been factored in. For example, our minimum revenue estimate would be larger if Aegerion revealed the percentage of international sales, “many” of which were multi-month shipments.
    7. Aegerion’s 3rd quarter revenue came in at $16.3 million

    Critical point: At zero patient growth, we calculate Aegerion’s revenue to be $15 million. After we add in multi-month shipments the total is even closer to, if not exceeding, the actual reported revenue of $16.3 million. Thus, reported revenue does not support Aegerion’s claim of “accelerating” patient growth. In fact we must ask, Was Aegerion’s patient “growth” actually flat – or even negative?

    Matt - 3 foot crowbar

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • Arthur, your logic is flawed as usual. International sales have not yet started, per IR. Talking to IR, they said that international growth especially will be in large clumps as the Nations health care approves the treatment. So in one day they could double the number of patients, then be steady for a month, then another large block come in.

      You also ignore the patient pipeline completely. If last quarter they had 215 patients on therapy out of 300 total who applied, and this quarter they had 250 out of 750 who have applied, it would explain he whole situation.

      The past doesn't equal the future.

 
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