So, like much of biotech, it appears like market manipulation seems to be a big theme here. Some think AEGR was purposefully manipulated down to allow shorts to cover, but that the value of the stock is far above its current price of 56/share. Others who presumably are pure shorts on this thing think the stock was over-valued and that the price came down as a proper correction. I'm not to this name, so I'm hoping to hear some intelligent opinions as to what is the current state of this thing. From my DD, it appears that the street and published equity research supports ALL support that this thing is a buy, and that the PT provides upside value regardless of what source/analyst you look at. I guess I'm never a believer in a "sure bet" and like to hear what others think. I appreciate all responses- and lets try to stay away from the thumbs up/down bs and try to all learn here from both sides.
No consensus. One loser short who lost his life savings shorting AEGR at $12 then $15 and had to cover at $60. Now he sits here and posts under lots of aliases (Censored, Adamwang, Arthurs1, jetmanbash, and others) out of bitterness and hatred. Others of us made a bundle on this stock and took most profits and diversified. Still a small portion in AEGR, and we'd like to see it continue to prosper, which it is doing.
So you have the polarized longs and the hate-filled shorts (posting from their Mom's basements). No consensus here.
You are the lier, and tricky too. You noted the share price would go to somewhere between 1200 and 6400. With that so-called potential and your strong beliefs.....now you are saying you sold most of your shares and diversified?! And you were also wrong when you said that Mr. Beer-gate would just be a hiccup in price, and a slap on the hand from the FDA.........doesn't look that way when the company themselves release otherwise. You again show you are way off target and in your own world.......I do know that your dog thinks you are king of the universe anyway. t
Very good question. Lomitapide is an outstanding addition to the field of lipid treatment. It is addressed to the most severe hyperlipidemic patients, i.e. the homozygous hypercholesterolemics. They are born with cholesterol generally above 600-700 mg/dl and do not respond to statin drugs. Thus they are condemned to early cardiovascular death if not treated.
How many are they? An official evaluation tells that today they should be between 5,000 and 10,000 in the world, but a reanalysis I have just seen puts the figure up to 15,000.
Lomitapide is effective in 100% of those patients (it reduces bad cholesterol by 50% or more) and, if the patient stays on a very strict diet (these patients are accustomed to it) long term compliance is well above 80% (possibly as good as with statins!). Liver damage is a potential consequence, but evaluation of patients on long term treatment has been reassuring.
Competitors? Kynamro from Isis is poorly effective (at best -30%) and very poorly tolerated due to the pain after injections. It is not approved outside of the US. It should not go beyond 5% of the total market.
Future treatment with the PCSK9 antagonists (Amgen and Regeneron) should not change matters that much. They are effective only in 20% or so of the homozygotes and, again, they need injections. When and if they reach the market, not earlier than 2018, they again will not make much of a change.
I am not good at financial analyses: help yourself.