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Echo Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • drchik23 drchik23 Mar 2, 2011 12:40 PM Flag

    ECTE vs. NEOP

    I just thought I'd compare the two, b/c I think it's interesting what we'll find, and I realize many here follow both companies. Obviously both are supported by Montour, and Uri's support of each has helped to move PPS in the past. But now, PPS is rising for other reasons. Investors are realizing that both companies are getting close to achieving their goals, bringing products or drugs to the market.

    Without going too in-depth, look at market cap. Neop is about 320M while ECTE is 110M. So Neop trades at a premium. Is debt an issue for either company? No. Is dilution an issue? Unlikely.

    Neop was stuck at $2 for a long time while on the OTC:BB where ECTE is today. After moving to Amex, it helped to unlock some more value and obviously brought more attention and increase in volume. Just 3 months ago 100,000 shares was high for NEOP. Today 1,000,000 appears to be normal, despite avg. volume totaling 650,000 shares per day.

    Lymphoseek market is about 500M. Ecte's market for their product is 1 billion. If rigs get's approved, market can be 2-3B. (But rigs may be further away from approval. Will find out this year if NEOP can coordinate EU and FDA SPA.) Meanwhile, ECTE's second product has a 12B market.

    So why is ECTE trading at what appears to be a discount to NEOP? Neop was so close once, and then failed. But many longs have stuck it out and stayed with the company. Also, ECTE is not on amex or nasdaq yet. I think when that changes, so will PPS. It was too long ago (couple of weeks) that ECTE was at 4.50 while Neop was in the upper 3's. I would think that it should outperform it from now on, as well.

    I'm curious if anyone else agrees? I would further just like to add that based on the PR on Feb 8th, it seems that their product is fairly likely to be approved. Whereas we still don't know if seek will get the approval and broad label we hope it will achieve. It's probable, but I think it may me less certain than what ECTE will obtain any day, week or month. Let's see........

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    • I know both very well and none of the 2 are high risk at all.

      First from what I've been reading here and other boards, people are under the false pretenses that the prelude system is under fda review at this moment when that is not the case. As of my last contact with their IR in 3/26, they have not resubmitted the 510(k) amendment (60 day fda review cycle for amendments) for the prelude skinprep system. The reason I say ECTE is not high risk (assuming no dilution and based solely on catalyst) is because the earlier version of this device aka Soniprep, is already already approved.

      NEOP is a different story. Lymphoseek has not only proved successful with all of their trials (including another phase 3 neo3-05), but has also received reviews from the physicians who conducted the studies to say it should be the standard vs placebo. This is not a $100 stock as someone suggested. In fact, its not even a double digit (at least not with neo3-05 and neo3-09 alone) stock with this mkt cap/ os shares/float ... however, that takes nothing away from Neoprobe or Echo. They are both great companies who will see a significant spike in their PPS sooner rather then later.

      Neoprobe will achieve the results they expect (not hope for) in May and the PPS will jump to around $6 (hopefully higher, its 70% of my portfolio) and Echo will jump to similar ranges or higher when they have their 510k approved .. their tgcm system will def move them a lot higher but thats still far away cause thats a brand new 510k with no prev. approved device.

    • If you want a better comparable look at ECTE vs DXCM which has a billion dollar market cap. Dexcom is a pure play in continuous glucose monitoring with a needle that stays implanted for a week and then moved to another place on the body. Like Echo, the glucose is wirelessly read on a PDF device. They do $50Mish in sales and will likely be obsoleted by Echo within a few years. Also, Echo has a platform with multiple apps for analyte monitoring and drug delivery. This is the comparable worth considering. At a $200M cap, Echo has a looong way to go up. Much bigger markets than NEOP and transformational platform. Just sayin'....

    • Guys, check out NNVC.....Patrick Cox recommended as well...I'm starting to average in.

    • My condolences Inside....I had an ominous feeling when I saw you had been away for quite some time. I'm really saddened for your loss. In the few years that I have been writing on these boards, you have been one of the greatest voices for me. We've always managed to try to pose serious dialogue without all the stupidity and hostility and plagues these boards. Always remembering that we are human first, investors (or gamblers) second.

      I wish you only the best and am so glad to see that you did again respond. I've been dealing with some personal issues myself recently which has managed to take most of my time. I've also had to come up with a huge amount of change to finally pay my taxes. But I managed to put a little cash aside in case anything does drop to lower levels.

      Regarding NEOP: I was really disappointed the stunt that BUPP pulled. I know it's easy to say it's only a month delay, but it really makes me wonder if anything is really "in the bag" with that company. When things are bad, they overdeliver. When things are good, they disappoint. Bipolar is as bad for stocks as it is for people. Let's see what Pyckett can do? I added another 3,000 shares recently to try to get back up to 10,000 shares.

      I am really bullish on IMSC...... I'm up to 21,400 shares and may get a little more. I've really spent some time reviewing their stuff and think that EOY this is certainly above a $1. If you recall, they had some big orders for Chinese olympics, so I expect the same for London. I think 49 cent line has held up nicely and we could see ST bounce. Despite the debt, this company is so cheap that even at $2, I think it's a steal. If everything were rosy, they'd be a $5 stock. But I'll take the bad with the good if that allows me to get in at these lower levels.

      I am down to 2000 shares ECTE, b/c I put a bunch of dough on July AMRN calls $5. I bought a lot at $3.20 last week and sold for $3.90 today. I was very pleased. If it drops again, I will load up once more. I think if ANCHOR is positive--i think it will be--it hits $15 next month. From today's $8 price, that's a perfect storm. (If anchor fails, could see $5, but will rebound to $8 before year end. So as I see it, risk is low.)

      Also working on a penny stock that's 3 cents right now.....When I get more info, I'll let you know. I was upset I sold INHX two weeks before it exploded-100% in 2 weeks. But at least I was happy that my call was right even though my timing was off. of luck to you. Feel free to reach me at anytime you want to discuss. I wish you the best. And to everyone else on this board, stay human, and good luck.

    • Insideout -
      I am also in Echo and IMSC. I have been on the DLYT site. Looks interesting, but most of their prospects are in the future. Do you know of some upcoming event that will cause a pop in the price.

    • Ryan. Thanks for confirming. The NASDAQ is really where they should be and the price now confirms this as a possibility. Hopefully the review process is not too long.

    • Agree, agree, agree. Yes, they did apply....I believe for Nasdaq....they may have skipped the AMEX and went for it all....Patrick Cox said if they had applied for AMEX, it would have been approved by now. Apparently they believe their stock price will stay above $4 for quite some time. My guess is Echo has been banking on this final FDA approval for Prelude which will obviously validate a stock price well over $4 moving forward.

    • I'm back, but maybe not as frequent. My father passed away a couple weeks ago, so priorities have shifted.

      I picked up 3K more ECTE to put myself at 7K and picked up 10K DLYT today, I have another 5K DLYT order at .38. An order is currently waiting for 3500 more IMSC to put me at 15K, if the darn thing will ever execute. Lastly, I'm trying to pick up 75 contracts of $5 JAN 2012 calls of AVNR to go with my $2.50 Jan 2013 and $5 Jan 2013 calls, but they won't execute either.

      I still hold 30K NEOP. This latest delay is frustrating. I thought NEOP was fairly transparent, maybe too transparent, so every mistake was telescoped, but this latest delay seemed to have been purposely hidden from investors and I don't see what benefit hiding this delay had for management. I'm encouraged that bupp is out; fresh leadership is needed and NEOP has the personnel to make it happen.

      As for ECTE dropping due to delay? It's a possibility, but I don't want to bank on it. If a NASDAQ listing announcement comes through, it will bounce the other way. Anyone know if an application were ever actually submitted? The long term opportunity is strong and I'd rather miss the drop, then miss the run. However, if does drops, I may shift my investments and throw more at it.

    • I agree with your sentiment.

    • The price target means little to me. First of all, it's a yearly price target. Second, if the first FDA approval occurs, you could see $10 by year end as the next one draws nearer. We all know the diabetes market dwarfs most medical markets. And even a small share of a market >$15B and growing everyday is substantial.

      The last time PPS went up after delay b/c it made the liklihood of approval seemed to be a lock. But this time is different. The more the delays, the further revenues get pushed out and same for next FDA approval. So it's not apples to apples. know I'm bullish on this company. I actually think it's products are "easier" to be approved than NEOP's, i.e. more likely to see FDA approval. But that doesn't mean we won't see $3.25 before we see $5. I didn't sell all. Just a third of my position. I've been actually starting to add to IMSC.

      The chart looks ugly. It appears to be a dog. But that is when I think people should look to buy. When ECTE and NEOP hit almost $3, many were worried the sky was falling, myself included. And instead it shot back up.

      IMSC has been getting small contracts after small contracts. They are hiring people. Financing should soon be in place--speculation. If all goes well, I think 2011 TSA approval does occur and despite dilution happening, we will see a PPS hold above $1.50. To me, that is great risk reward. You have to be willing to hold LT though, in case TSA never comes. But I am really liking what I am seeing. If not for those stupid 8 cent warrants I would invest more.

      Anyway.........don't want to go OT like I always do. Let's see what echo has in store. Nothing goes straight up. If it goes to lower $3's, I'll buy more. If approval occurs tomorrow I'll be equally excited.

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