1. Kudos to xavierretailcorp for insight that Kirklands unsuccessfully shifted from giftables to home decor. This is a hard thing for most people to see unless they are watching very closely. The only reason we saw this is because we are a gift wholesaler. One buyer can make ALL the difference.
2. Kirkland's will likely make no profit this year. If they do, it is probably just smoke and mirrors. To make things worse, Kirkland's can't afford not to continue opening stores. I don't know when Kirkland's opens the majority of their new stores, but I would assume it is done in time for 3Q and 4Q sales, the most profitable time of the year.
3. I wouldn't be surprised if the CEO was let go because he suggested going through bankruptcy. It is completely speculation, but it can often be in a retailer's best interest to go through bankruptcy. This allows the company to close underperforming stores and emerge more profitable.
4. Non-mall stores are no saviour. Here is what I have found based on their annual report. It may or may not be accurate due to mistakes I have made in calculating.
-Average non-mall store is 5189 sf for stores opened between 1/31/04 and 1/29/05. There were 4 mall stores closed that averaged 1842 sf per store.
-The total change in rent was $3,637,000 for that same period, and the total change in sf was 220,950 sf. Assuming that the rate of non-mall store openings hasn�t changed from the prior year (which they likely have), the AVERAGE price they paid for non-mall sf was $16.46 per sf (this number is very rough due to 4 mall store closings and likely annual increases that should roughly balance each other out). In addition, this number could be high because it assumes a constant rate of store openings, and it assumes that prior year�s store openings were also primarily non-mall store openings.
-The average rent for Kirkland�s is approximately $97,965 per store, or $20.86 per sf. This number is pulled down due to mid-year store openings, but it should be relatively accurate. I would guess the real number could be 20% higher, or around $25.
57.5% of revenue is in the second half based on 2004 fiscal year numbers. Thus, new non-mall stores likely averaged approximately $999,000 per store. These stores will probably increase sales from their 1st year substantially.
Compare this to an average sales per store (chainwide) of $1,322,000, and averaged $286 sales per sf.
I don't know the actual numbers, and these are just rough approximations, but it doesn't look good.