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AcelRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ACRX) Message Board

  • thinkclearly007 thinkclearly007 Dec 4, 2013 4:02 PM Flag

    Question for Patchen76 or BioAnalyst or SiameseKitty or anyone

    someone put a calculation that ACRX is going to target 2000 hospitals and if each hospital will have daily 10 sugeries that would work out as $3Million per day in sales revenue. How realistic is this ?

    Please comment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • PropThink Research Team:
      AcelRx notes that, annually, there are 12 million in-patient surgical procedures conducted in U.S. hospitals each year that require post-operative pain management, and that Zalviso can be used in 95% of these cases. Furthermore, as an alternative to liquid morphine, thje company estimates that Zalviso is usable in 66%-80% of the 7.4 million non post-operative hospital procedures done each year in the United States, and 40% of the 300,000 hospital-affiliated hospice patients in the United States. Under conservative assumptions, this means that Zalviso can potentially be administered to as many as 16.45 million patients per year. Although AcelRx has not provided firm guidance on pricing, the company has hinted at possible pricing of between $150 and $300 per two-day doses, versus the current $100 price tag for a two-day cycle of low-dose IV PCA morphine, and almost $200 for high-dose IV PCA morphine.

      In this range, the company can potentially undercut morphine on price while delivering superior efficacy and patient satisfaction. This story, then, is one of execution. It only takes a small percentage of the market for IV PCA morphine to make a meaningful impact on the top-line at ACRX

      • 1 Reply to uplatas
      • 20 Million surgeries per year and according to many researchers ACRX should be able to grab 10% in the launching year -- that would be 2 Million surgeries x $150 = $300M
        30M + 50M + 70M + 150M

        30M means 66K surgeries per month or 200K surgeries per quarter

        I guess we will have to wait and find out but one thing is sure 80% of the float is already under institutional holding prior to FDA approval, which gives you an indication
        18MM Total Shares Held from a float of 24M ( old data ) and this is more than RMTI KERX SRPT institutional holdings.
        20% of the float is short 5M shares

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • It isn't going to happen overnight. I think a reasonable expectation is 100mil revs in the first year. If you look at valuations PCRX and INSY both do that after 1 year of steady growth. Valued at 1.5 and 1 billion. ACRX will have a similar value.

    • 2000 X 10 = 20,000 surgeries
      20,000 surgeries X $150/day of Zalviso = $3,000,000
      Maybe this is how they got that number. Wow, that is $1 billion in sales. I ain't selling.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
ACRX
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