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Rambus Inc. Message Board

  • macktp21 macktp21 Nov 18, 2004 4:18 PM Flag

    Prediction

    Without positive litigation news this stock will probably drift back down to between 16 to 18 dollars. Right now all we can do is sit back and wait till the next legal decision which appears to be spring.

    The P/E is alread high in the mid teens.

    I think a better price is coming for people who want to own the stock but shorting it should be left to the professionals...whoever they are.

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    • Re: "So you're saying that every attorney who has ever presented a case already knows the outcome of the trial."

      No, of course not. But I am saying that they have a feel for the likely outcome that is a LOT closer than flipping a coin (50-50).

      I don't think that anyone would tell you that SJ is certain or even close to certain. But the people who have followed the case seem to think that it's more like 60/40 or 70/30 than 50/50.

    • i agree, not closing on high of day or any follow through leaves me sceptical on holding a position

    • JustMyOpinionNotThatItMatters JustMyOpinionNotThatItMatters Nov 18, 2004 6:48 PM Flag

      "Right now all we can do is sit back and wait till the next legal decision which appears to be spring."

      That discounts the chance of Whyte's Summary Judgment against Hynix, which may or may not happen, as others have mentioned, but it also discounts the FTC.

      I for one don't think the FTC will delay sweeping this whole mess under the rug. The Complaint Counsel presented their best case, the ALJ bought NONE of it. Now the Complaint Counsel has appealed, and wants to reopen the case based on what MIGHT be in the documents that Payne has allowed IFX to peek at.

      Put yourself in the FTC Comissions's shoes, yes they would like to persecute Rambus to pander to their special interest groups, and somehow prove themselves "in the right" but they have nothing in the ALJ's decision to base that on, and the Complaint Counsel didn't give them any ammunition in their appeal. All they said was Rambus did something wrong, and you should ignore the findings of the ALJ. Then to top it off, you should reopen the case based on information that they've never seen that might implicate Rambus somehow.

      The FTC Commission has to consider the weak arguments of the Complaint Counsel, the ALJ's findings that all but said the Jedec witnesses were lying, the collusion evidence, and the fact that the DOJ is pursuing the same companies for antitrust. The FTC should be pissed at the complaint counsel for shooting the FTC in the ass. The FTC could have been the lead in this investigation, exposing industry wide corruption and collusion, instead they persecuted the victim. To continue that will just make them look stupid. I say they get it over with on 12/9 in their executive session that follows the oral presentations, with a vote to deny the Complaint Counsels appeal.

      Then if we are sitting there with an FTC decision that is final, and Whyte comes out with a Summary Judgment, just what does that do to your spring estimate.

      This stock is not for the faint of heart.

      • 1 Reply to JustMyOpinionNotThatItMatters
      • It makes me want to send in 1000 provisional votes for Rossi to King County Democrats manipulating the governors election.

        just kidding....unfortunately they're not.


        Thanks for the good answer. I missed it at 16. Guess I should go ahead and buy some now. 22 dollars is still cheap if it actually is a 1000 dollar stock as Hager claims it should be once it wins it's legal battles.

        What percentage of your portfolio have you gambled on RMBS?

    • I agree

    • Re: "Without positive litigation news this stock will probably drift back down to between 16 to 18 dollars."

      Normally you'd be right, however the ruling on SJ is imminent. Because of that, I think it will hold rather than drifting back, until the SJ ruling comes out. Then we either gain or give up 5-10 points.

      • 1 Reply to rambiskit
      • Watz

        Re: "Normally you'd be right, however the ruling on SJ is imminent. Because of that, I think it will hold rather than drifting back, until the SJ ruling comes out. Then we either gain or give up 5-10 points."

        I disagree with your prediction about the price movement. Though I'd like to know more about how you arrived at it. My sense is that the probability of a SJ ruling in favor of RMBS is quite high and I think that the market shares that view. So I think that RMBS' price already refelcts most of the value of a SJ win by RMBS. I think that that probability is around 80%. Using this logic, the amount that RMBS has moved up since the news leaked (from 17.25 to 21.50) should be 80% of the total move once the SJ is fully priced in, and 4.25 equals 80% of 5.3, then I predict that RMBS should settle around 22.55 after the dust settles after a SJ win. One could also have decided that, at yesterday's high, the market had overreacted and more than fully discounted an SJ win by RMBS, which lends some support to 22.55 as the fully discounted value. Now that I've done this calculation, I don't quite believe it myself, but there it is. So my question for you is what percentage of an SJ win do you believe the market is discounting at this point? If you feel RMBS could go up ANOTHER 5 points with such a win, then you must think that the market estimates the probability of such a win at around 4.25/(4.25+5), or 46%. Do you really think the market thinks that such a win is less than 50% now?

    • SJ out of Whyte's court is the next big legal event and it will be here long before the spring.

    • Mack,

      If a decent chance of SJ exists in the next 30 days or so why would it drift as low as $16ish ? I'm certain there's many here that are holding for that play right now.

      My thougts are that AFTER the SJ (assuming it is announced) there will be a significant run up similar to the FTC announcement -- may get to $35, who knows. Unfortunately, I don't think it will hold due to many profit takers (maybe even myself) that will take the money and run while Payne get's his rocks off on us. Once that mini-horror show is over, then folks will return.

      Of course, like me after Writ #2, I'll be sick if I bailed (again) and Stone pulls the performance of his life and actually WINS this thing! Is that possible !?!

      Next 6 months will be interesting. How many times have we said that !?!

      DR

      • 3 Replies to da_roarn2000s
      • "My thougts are that AFTER the SJ (assuming it is announced) there will be a significant run up similar to the FTC announcement -- may get to $35, who knows. Unfortunately, I don't think it will hold due to many profit takers (maybe even myself) that will take the money and run while Payne get's his rocks off on us. Once that mini-horror show is over, then folks will return."

        I wonder how many people are planning on this trade.

      • Re: "Of course, like me after Writ #2, I'll be sick if I bailed (again) and Stone pulls the performance of his life and actually WINS this thing! Is that possible !?!"

        The definition of a "win" is getting a judgment of infringement. It won't seem like a "win" with Payne's "gift-wrapping", but if we get that, the CAFC can toss the wrapping and leave the infringement verdict, remanding ONLY for a finding of damages, without needing a VA3.

      • "Of course, like me after Writ #2, I'll be sick if I bailed (again) and Stone pulls the performance of his life and actually WINS this thing! Is that possible !?! "

        Or if the info from the DOJ pressures IFX to settle? I'm in the same boat where I would be tempted to bail at $35 but knowing my luck I would chase the stock to $135.

        Bottom line- I'm staying long until this mess is resolved.

    • er, I think those of us holding here are either expecting positive litigation news or are simply holding for the long term. This afternoon it was stuck in a very narrow trading range after the opening. I expect it to go BANG in one direction or another depending on the news. Buckle up.

      Integralaction

 
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