Re: "There are two possible outcomes for SJ, yes or no. That's 50-50. Unless you are the judge, all the legal arguments in the world don't add up to jack squat. He either gives a SJ or he doesn't. Everything else is conjecture."
Not correct. The Judge makes his decision based on facts (Payne doesn't count, he isn't a real judge). We have access to most of those facts. Granted that we -- everyone -- will weigh them differently, but still, it's possible to look at the facts and make an educated guess at how the judge will rule.
That guess is not precise, but it's a LOT better than "There are two possible outcomes for SJ, yes or no. That's 50-50".