"then he said there is a 20% chance that it will not happen or go down. therefore he is covered either way."
We do not live in a world of absolutes...at least I don't. If you do, you are doomed to "absolute" failure.
I am fully committed to the probability that RMBS will move up nicely in the next week. BTW, your paraphrasing of my account to saying that there would be a 20% chance of it not happening or going down was inaccurate. I simply stated that there was a 20% chance that the event (a pop of 4 points) would not happen. I can see your difficulty in understanding charts, afterall, they are based on accurate recording and interpretation of what has transpired. You fall a little short there. Not a major problem, mind you...just a introspective shortcoming that you must certainly recognise.
BTW, I appreciate all the fundamental information given on this board. I, contrary to bamaincal, do understand the importance of both fundamental and technical analysis in optimizing my returns. I, unlike bamaincal, do not chose to ignore that which I find hard to understand and do not consider it a waste of time to see and hear many things that although I may disagree with, consider it important in understanding the whole market in which I participate. However, I, like bamaincal, wish him well.
I happen to follow be a student of Technical Analysis myself....and without question I believe you can look at price volume relationships and you can see how support and resistance works. Their is a place for TA in every investors toolbox.
However, the Rambus situation does not lend itself to traditional TA. For example, I can guarantee you that there was no leak of information prior to Judge Rader's CAFC decision.
Here's what happened before and after the CAFC decision.
So, you can see in the days leading up to Rader's decision, the volume was normal, and the price actually dropped from around 8 to the low 7's.
This doesn't mean that TA has no place...just that you can't always predict news driven stocks(especially legal news) by TA. The market is not a smart as people think it is. When the UnoCal FTC decision came out the Wednesday afternoon before Thanksgiving, the market didn't react until Friday morning.