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Rambus Inc. Message Board

  • rambiskit rambiskit Jan 17, 2006 7:31 PM Flag

    Do not assume down tomorrow ....

    Do not assume we will be down tomorrow.

    All weekend long, longs made rosy predictions for today. It didn't exactly work that way, however. Now the shorts are doing the same thing.

    After hours is fairly meaningless. We may be down tomorrow (Lord knows, after 10 up straight days of being up every day as much as $5 per day, we are due for a bit of selling and profit taking), but then again we may not be. I know lots of people who are looking for a dip as a buying opportunity, and an early dip, should it materialize, could well reverse as it did on Friday.

    Tomorrow will tell it's own story, maybe up, maybe down, but Intel's problems (which are just that, Intel's problems) and an after hours move on almost no volume doesn't forecast anything about tomorrow's activity. Especially not with earnings coming the day after tomorrow. You won't feel good if you sell tomorrow and then we are at $38 on Friday morning following a rosy CC.

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    • Watz, I know you remember your history, so why do you seem destined to repeat it? This chart is almost identical to the when McGuire released the ID.... over 2 years ago. Why are you making the same mistakes this time? Is your fear of missing the next huge run blinding you to the facts......... the forces aligned against this company are astronomical. Nobody is going to settle for at least 6 months. Most likely there will be no resolution for years.
      Self-destruct if you want to, but remember how sure you were that the amigos were backed into a corner the last time.
      RIP (Regina is a Pig not Rest in Peace.)

      • 3 Replies to reginaisapig
      • Re: "This chart is almost identical to the when McGuire released the ID.... over 2 years ago. Why are you making the same mistakes this time?"

        Charts are, in my view, bullshit. I don't give a damn what the chart looks like. I don't believe in charts, at least not for news driven stocks like Rambus in a period of immediate new development.

        The FTC ID was an "intermediate event", like many of the various court rulings. It was important, in the long term scheme of things, but it wasn't an outcome, and it did not have close chronological proximity to an outcome. In fact, it was in the FTC case, which I view as a "side-show" anyway, since I'm not expecting to get either license agreements or royalties (past or future) from the FTC.

        There are only two non-intermediate events: a settlement, or a direct court victory over one or more of the infringers (I guess I should add a victory in the AT case to the list of direct outcomes).

        The difference in the current situation is that a court victory, a non-intermediate event, is imminent within less than 5 months, and the imminency of that event has a very great possibility -- no, probability -- of leading to an even more immediate event of absolute finality, a settlement with one or more of the infringers.

      • Enough with the monicker! - I'd bounce Regina unseen and probably be a happy man (but then I'd probably bounce yo' Momma after a few brewskis) - Yes Regina - That's an offer and I did once visit Regina.

      • "Most likely there will be no resolution for years."

        It's already been years? Time solves all problems and time has arrived for this one.

    • RE:"You won't feel good if you sell tomorrow and then we are at $38 on Friday morning following a rosy".

      But you will feel good if it closes $20 Friday.

    • Watz, since September 1, I'll bet we are up on 85-90% of the trading days. Back in September, we began a slow rise; a few cents each day that seemed to take a pattern of large rise in the AM, slowing in the PM to end up a little. I'm too tired to go back and look at each day, but we've been up so much that a down day once in a while should be looked as part of the gorilla birth process.

      best to you, croaker

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