There are some key dates at Rambus.org to keep in mind, but if you're going to use options as an indicator, the best bet is MAX PAIN, the point at which most folks guess wrong, the point at which most folks place bets the most options and puts sold, and that is the price 35.
The option expiration date is April third week, and the options carry three dollars premium, something options don't due unless they usually have three months to run.
These are HUGE BETS with HUGE short term gains for newbies. A couple three dollars profit on 38 dollar stock margined only 35% can garner you 25-30% in a few weeks on a hedge position is a monster.
With a positive bias, the market is saying the stock will end the April option period around 35--with positive bias more than 2/3 the way to 40--or 38.33 AT LEAST.
It's a no brainer to buy this stock at 38 sell an April 35 for 6 bucks, have to put up 8.40, carry the rest on margin and option premium proceeds, and get a 35% return.
Now go back in history just 3 months and check out max pain for Jan 06 (big bucks at stake because of leaps), Feb 06 and Mar 06 and verify whether RMBS finished at max pain for each of those expiration dates.
Hard to know who the buyers are now. They are a combination of: short coverers, ltl's still accumulating, new buyers, large and small, and even Rambus buying its own stock back. I don't know to what extent the new buyers are motivated by how the trial is going vs. new analysis of future earnings based on the deals RMBS is signing. The real big institutional buying hasn't begun because the trial isn't over and there are very few analysts providing independant research. What I feel strongly about is that the selling is drying up. Everybody who got into the stock in the last 5 years and had a big loss at one time or another has now had a chance to get out even. All that nervous money is gone. IMO, the stock is now in the hands of more patient money. BTW, what do we hear from the Merrill analyst these days? He was always using Rambus as the example of an overpriced tech stock. Does anyone know if he really followed RMBS? He'll have real egg on his face if the news continues to break our way. Good luck, longs. In since '98
Speculation that there is NO WAY this jury understands the full implication of this "theft."
It is my opinion that the jury will go against this American company and side with big business.
I would put my money into Micron and Intel before being committed to this stock. All this stock IS is speculation.
THE JURY JUST HAS NO CLUE -- You LOSE with a bunch of emotional women trying to understand all of this technical jargon that your attorney is spouting with such monotony. IMO, the jury sees you all as just whiners, with NO REAL BACKBONE.
This little engine will not make it up this BIG HILL.
I think the best indicator of where this stock is going is to check out the puts. Looking at the May puts say for 25, they are basically worthless, meaning the MM's believe this stock will not really drop, therefore saying that they believe Rmbs will not lose the trial, because that is the only way this stock will take a big hit.
If you had the May 25 puts say at 4 dollars per share, they the biggies think rmbs will lose, but with the price where it is, and with the May 35 calls at 7 dollars per share, that sums it up.