In Rambus' recent 10-Q for Q1, they state that the top 5 customers accounted for 67% of the total revenue for the quarter.
As Q1 revenues were $47 mill, these five accounted for $31.5 mill.
The only licensee not explicitly identified in terms of its contribution is Elpida.
They are on a fixed quarterly payment pending some trigger which would have them revert to a 3.5% per piece payment.
According to i suppli Q1 Dram sales for Elpida was $640 mill.
At 3.5% they would be paying $22.4 mill.
Instead, As Intel payed $10 mill, Infineon, $5.85; Fujitsu, $5 mill; and AMD, $4.7 mill, Elpida as the last of the 5 contributed $5.94 mill.
The difference between the $22.4 and the $5.94 is $16.26 mill.
In other words if the trigger occurs, Rambus would be receiving from Elpida some $15-$20 mill more than they are currently receiving.
What's the trigger? Will a judgement against Hynix do it?
I will ask Daniel Amir to ask them this question on the upcoming conf call.
Elpida's contribution will be increasing anyway as they begin selling XDRAM to Sony.
But if they begin to pay at the 3.5% rate for their DDR and DDR2 production, Rambus revenue would begin a hockey stick ramp and immediately justify a much higher stock price.
This is from the i suppli report for Q1 DRAM sales.
Elpida Memory also benefited from increased DRAM bit growth. Sales rose to $640 million, up 34 percent from $478 million in the fourth quarter of 2005. The company attained a market share of 9.7 percent, up 2 points from 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter, maintaining a strong fifth-place position in the global DRAM market.
Like Philips, lsi logic, ASIC Architect, Kawasaki Microelectronics, Broadcom, Mellanox, Rohm, Tallika, Agere, JMicron, Fairchild, National Instruments, Sharp, Sanyo, OnSemi, Micronas, Motorola and Nvidia/ATI of course, to name a few�
Somewhat as infringeon2003 suggests, I would like to see Rambus adopt a BOD resolution directing that the company will grant NO MORE options (except to employees below the VP level) until the results of the full investigation are made known and a re-vote occurs on a re-vamped option program.
Will you see if Amir will pose that question?
-------- Suspend the options program pending by: infringeon2003 07/08/06 02:38 pm Msg: 1031852 of 1031897
Actually, the stock buyback program is not being effectively administered. The stock buybacks in Q1 2006 were at prices far above what they should have been with competant management.
Rambus could have bought back the stock before August 5 for a fraction of what they ended up paying for it.
It appears that the buyback announcement on January 23 was to reduce the effect of Mooring's exercise and sales of 2.3 million shares in January alone.
Unfortunately, the management is more focused on their stock options and managing their public appearance than they are on the company's profitablity.
A total of 5. 8 million shares were eercised and or sold during the months between Jauuary and May of 2006.
The amount of profit made on those shares exceeds the entire profit earned by Rambus since its inception is approximately $116 million dollars distributed amongst ten executives and directors.
Thus the options grant program bares no relation to actual performance of the company at the bottom line.
The entire options plan and the buyback program needs to be redone to achieve the intended purpose.
I suspect if the public shareholders had known about what Rambus management was really doing with the options they would have overwhelmingly voted down the options package and insisted that the public shareholders be included in a committee to redo the options plan.
There was a failure to disclose on the part of Hughes which tilted the outcome of the shareholder vote.
The stock option plan should be suspended pending a new vote after the results of the Options audit are completed and the entire issue of options grants and buybacks are reviewed by outside directors and representative of the public shareholders.
Some of you may be critical of me for voicing my opinion of waht is happening and what I consider reasonable approaches to correcting these abuses moving into the future but I am entitled to my opinion as you are to your own.