Rambus Near Term The recent FTC decision created a nice but very temporary pop in the stock price. As the historical trading pattern demonstrates only too well, the stock price will decay again particularly since there will be no news of any significant upward impetus to propel the stock to higher levels or rather to maintain current levels.
Unfortunately, the NDCA, HJW, has, with all good intentions, decided to unduly delay the trial in hopes that a settlement will issue. Anyone familiar with this case knows full well that no settlement can or will issue. The parties are too far apart. Hynix is not necessarily looking to win this case but rather to delay, delay, delay and frustrate RMBS into possibly agreeing to a less than satisfactory settlement(at least to the shareholders). It should be obvious by now that Hynix, and indeed the Amigos, believe that it is much more economical to litigate than to pay the royalty rates desired by RMBS.
As long as Hynix can continue to litigate, the day of reckoning is pushed far into the future and perhaps by a lucky stroke, Hynix may in the fullness of time find an advantage. Afterall, it is a quantum world, and anything can happen. This, I am sure, is the advice that Hynix counsel is proffering to its client. It is extremely naive to hope for any settlement soon. A date has not been set for the AT case so, for now, AT leverage is non-existent.
There is no good reason for Hynix, and indeed any of its brethren, to settle now. New licenses may trickle in, but for the most part, there is little if any opportunity for significant revenues from paid up licenses when it is far easier to steal with the certain knowledge that our legal system's wheels of justice run excruciatingly slowly.
What the street is looking for is the money. Without significant money coming in, in the short to intermediate term, the stock price cannot maintain current levels. We have seen this pattern over and over. The 5 month delay has made this stock dead money for the time being. It has no way to go but down and in several weeks or sooner, it will test the $15 level. Sentiment is strong sell and only accummulate in the low teens.
Unfortunately, this is a 2012 story and I for one see better opportunities nearer term than to tie up my investment in a dead money stock.