NVDA will drop like a rock and RMBS will explode on Monday.
The outcome should be released later today, over weekend, or Monday morning.
Already leaking results....
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--A staff report of the U.S. International Trade Commission says Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) illegally uses technology owned by Rambus Inc. (RMBS), and recommends a ban on U.S. imports of Nvidia's graphics chips. Rambus, based in Los Altos, Calif., has alleged that Santa Clara, Calif.-based Nvidia uses its technology in its computer-based graphics chips. An attorney with the ITC, Daniel Girdwood, said in the document that Nvidia has infringed on two patents owned by Rambus. He also dismissed claims by Rambus on three other patents. His report was made public on the ITC's Web site on Thursday, although a confidential version was released in September. Girdwood is the staff attorney who acts in the public's interests. While some may take his recommendation as an indication of ITC's possible decision on the matter, it is ultimately up to the judge, who at times will rule differently. A trial on the case began Tuesday and is ongoing. The original complaint was filed to the ITC by Rambus in November. Nvidia declined to comment and Rambus wasn't immediately available for comment.
excellent post ! i've been here for ten years and frankly am disappointed with the price following the good news we have received in court. this stock should be trading in the $25.00 range right now . the public doesn't understand the all the ramifications and potential of this stock. when the word gets out
and fully understood we should see some violent price action to the up side with massive volume.
You need to read up some. The news release you are referring to was made public on 10/15 but the source is a pretrial opinion of the courts staff issued on 9/30......note the pretrial findings(dropped 3 more patents).Now down to 2 from 9. The hearing started on 10/11 and is expected to go on for a week or two, but no decision will be announced until next year sometime. The Judge issued a statement in September that the deadline for the decision was being pushed back to May of 2010. Of course it could come earlier, but Courts take there time. Last week and this week is just a hearing.
All of this is in the ITC website case file...some of which is available for public viewing. Quite interesting reading. Lots of motions, procedures going into in-camera, motions sustained, denied etc.
The best one is the motion by Rambus to dismiss Nvidia's argument for Bad faith by Rambus - something called Unclean hands). Nvidia won that motion and it's in the hearing. I have no opinion of what that means, but just find it humorous.
But seriously---go to their website, EDIS section and you can see all this stuff for yourself. The deadline for a decision is May 20th, 2010. How it comes out will all just have to wait.
1.5% RAND WW Provides Great Visibility
One quite good outcome of this new Rambus initiative is that there is now great clarity and visibility of what Rambus' IP is worth. The DRAM market is currently $25 Billion. That is clear. Controllers may be $50 Billion or $100 Billion. Take your pick. Both markets are clearly growing and DRAM from an extremely depressed level. Any company with claims on these market should command a PE reflective of this future growth.
Now virtually anybody can calculate EPS of 1.5% of $75 Billion (using the lower estimate for controllers). As all LTLs know, after tax this all falls to the bottom line. In fact, after settlements litigation costs would plummet such that any marginal cost increase associated with the higher level of revenues would clearly be at least offset. Therefore we have $4.69 EPS and at a minimum PE for a growth sector of 20, a stock price of $94 per share.
Rambus is in an excellent legal position. They are offering this deal from a position of strengh. Their patents have been proven infringed and valid. After 10 years an entire industry has been unable to design around them. In fact the industry has been adopting more and more of Rambus' IP, just without paying for it until they have to. Now, they have to. Rambus has been through the appeals courts and supreme court several times and has WON. Rambus has beaten badly the FTC, a rare defeat for this vicious Federal Agency. The EU who tried to piggy back on the FTC has been cut off at the knee caps when the FTC dismissed their own case in disgrace. The EU will undoubtedly endorse Rambus' RAND and declare victory. Judge Whyte could issue his Samsung spoliation ruling any time, which is almost certainly a win for Rambus unless the Judge contradicts himself. A $10-$13 BILLION AT case against confessed antitrust fellons is about to resume in Sept.
The only thing infringers can cling to is an extremely odd spoliation ruling out of Delaware from a judge that has often been overruled. This ruling is opposite from the finding from a judge the chief appeals court judge calls the best patent judge in the country. HJW is rarely over-ruled.
The cartel fought so hard against Rambus out of the fear of being made foundries. They called Rambus a "deadly menance" and they were right. Rambus is driving them into the ground. What most people miss is that Rambus was never a deadly menance to Samsung. Samsung has diverse businesses. They will always thrive on consummer electronics. Samsung is not so afraid of being a foundry for DRAM, so long as they are the lowest cost foundry and can dictate to the market. A uniform RAND helps ensure no one will have an advantage over them.
IMO once any settlement is announced, there will be a mad rush to sign among others except Micron. With the stock worth at least $94 per share on settlement, I would expect gap movements higher on any evidence or suspicion of settlements over the next few weeks until AT trial because one of these days we could well see that settlement.
You are not up on the postive legal events that Rambus has hsd in the thr lsdt 9mos.
They now have NVDA cornered
Samsung,Hynix,MU all cornered facing 13B if they fight on.
They have the EU validating their patents even the EU is going to even allow them to charge for their controller IP.
You just wait in a year or so they will have 3-500M coming per year in royaltys