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Rambus Inc. Message Board

  • lreid1 lreid1 Jan 14, 1998 3:37 PM Flag

    Earnings 2

    Earnings for 4th qtr .06/share.

    • Regarding my percentage of my holding in Rambus: 40% which could be called 'crazy' or very risky. That's what they said when I had 20,000 short Seagate at $40 just a few months ago.

      The Seagate situation and Rambus are quite different. You should know that is you are a short seller...

      Ready to cover yet.?.Pretty quiet today...

    • the following institutions hold Rambus stock: (I'm sure there is more, but these are publicly available) I know this list is a few
      months old -- it's all I could get. I'll publish a revised list when available.

      Net Chng./ Last
      Institution/Shares Held Previous % Chng. % Owned Report
      ----------------------- -------- ---------- -------- ------
      Integral Capital Partners
      928,075 1,045,599 -117,524/-11.2% 4.2% 09/30/97
      Smith Barney Investment Advisors
      225,925 11,800 +214,125/+1,814.6% 1.0% 09/30/97

      Barclays Global Investors, N.A.
      187,300 0 +187,300/-- 0.8% 09/30/97

      Turner Investment Partners, Inc.
      101,650 58,880 +42,770/+72.6% 0.5% 09/30/97

      Fidelity Management & Research Co.
      90,000 2,600 +87,400/+3,361.5% 0.4% 09/30/97

      Horsley Bridge Partners, Inc.
      75,077 0 +75,077/-- 0.3% 09/30/97

      Mellon Bank, N.A.
      74,800 16,600 +58,200/+350.6% 0.3% 09/30/97

      Warburg Pincus Asset Management, Inc
      71,247 0 +71,247/-- 0.3% 09/30/97

      The Vanguard Group
      71,000 5,000 +66,000/+1,320.0% 0.3% 09/30/97

      Jennison Associates Capital Corp.
      70,000 70,000 --/-- 0.3% 09/30/97

      Top Ten Totals:
      1,895,074 1,210,479 +684,595/+56.6% 8.5%

      46 Institutions hold 10.83% of the outstanding shares as of September 30,1997. Of these, 29 established new positions while 15 liquidated their holdings. Overall, Institutions increased their holdings by 26.59% for the period.


      Regarding my percentage of my holding in Rambus: 40%
      which could be called 'crazy' or very risky. That's what they said when I had 20,000 short Seagate at $40 just a few
      months ago. It helps having good high tech exec friends in Asia who know the business climate and the industry (unpublished
      in the WSJ, which is also read religiously daily.) Short positions are selected based on probability and potential for large
      profits weighed against potential downside risks. Given the Asian financial crisis (currently hidden from view since the main
      countries' markets have been up for the last few days) the immediate/short term effect will impact corporate profits in subsequent
      quarters far more than the smiling bimbos on CNBC say they will be. There is continued risk of a Chinese Yuan & Hong Kong Dollar
      devaluation as pressure build in China from increased unemployment, and expected slowdown in GDP growth.

      All retirement funds (shorts not allowed) are all in cash. Being long in this market (Asia or not) is like juggling a bomb, it may go off anytime. If you are not glued to a computer daily, you could return to find that 30-40% of your money gone and the idiots on CNBC shrugging their shoulders -- the next day saying that "they saw it coming and knew it would happen...."

      Shorting seems the only way -- I like to hunt the elephants, I can't make a good meal out of the rabbits.

    • i think it is not fair to jump on Crashof98 because he has
      a negative view. I for one, think Rambus is very good company,
      but I am not one that will buy and hold and wait 3 or 4 years.
      i would like to enter and exit - because the very nature of
      new tech stocks is for it to be volatile. i am quite sure a
      lot of people here want to trade this stock, otherwise you will
      not be visiting this thread. if your intention was to buy and
      hold, come back 3 or 4 years from now (if this thread is still
      alive) i think we wanted RMBS to beat the estimates by 100%.
      at least .09 this quarter. That is why we pay 55.00 a share.
      For it to just make .06 this fiscal qtr - i think we overpaid.
      thus, there is a possibility that we can see this stock open
      lower. this is my rational. would you buy this stock today at
      54.00 knowing that the next 2 qrts (6 months) earnings will be
      flat. would the .06 earning justify investing now? today?
      we don't want to talk about the relevance of pe ratio. our
      stock is trading at over 500 pe ratio. are we overly optimistic?

    • I bought Rmbs a few times both long and short but held only a few hours or days. I made 2K both ways... I day trade. and Rambus has been a big trading stock, bt the spread is too wide, and volume too low.

      I trade many techs.. CPQ, AMAT, DELL. I agreed with your logic but not your approach.. I agreed that it would tank if it didn't make it's number. But it did.. Since it has so little institutional exposure, I don't think it will tank.. Most of the shares holders are small investors and will hold out. They are optimists...

      why would you place such a LARGE bet on such a large unknown.. What percentage of your portfolio is this trade???

    • I originally posted my short position on Jan 9th, message #120.
      I have an intermediate target of $42 to $40. This is where the price fell to just a few weeks ago (if I'm not mistaken -- I don't have my charts with me.) If the news keeps coming in from Asia at its current pace, I may hang-in there until $30.

      If the stock flys-up in the next few days, I would consider exiting, waiting until momentum died down, and then, back-in I come. I am so sure of this stocks (downward) potential, I am willing to take whatever loss comes to pass (short term).

      But with the market's reaction to Intel, I think any upward momentum will be short lived. Afterall, Intel doesn't have a P/E of 700 to 800 either, so that should magnify things a bit in my favor. One would logically summize. But then again, the market is not always logical either.

      I never did get your long position on this stock ?

    • It's not the number (.06/share) here, it's what the
      next quarters have in store. And from the report,
      it doesn't sound good. Techs are slowing down and Wall
      Street only wants to hear about future earnings at this
      point. I'm holding on for a big fall - this might get ugly.


      • 3 Replies to jebert
      • well,.... i like this company but i must admit that i established a short position (500 shares) this morning at about 9:45 am, EST at 54 3/16...... my expectations were for rmbs to beat their number (my understanding that it was .05...... and they did obviously) but to have a less than stellar opinion on the next few quarters..... don't get me wrong, i still like this company, but feel that their is too much premium in the stock at current levels..... good luck to all....

      • Nothing earth-shattering in the earnings report.
        I see a close at 57 tomorrow.

      • Dear Short sellers:

        Tomorrow Rambus may move up on the open. Do not panic and buy.
        This stock has only one direction to go in the short term, and that is down. As more "undisclosed" news comes out of Asia, more
        large corporations go bankrupt, and the economies of the world start to slow down.

        The lackluster (DOWN) performance of Intel today shows that the street is not impressed with "beating the number", since the number was set low to begin with, and will not continue to reward a company with inflated P/Es with flat earnings. Afterall, Intel only earned -10% than last year compared with -20% (their number). I will hold this puppy until I see Rambus at $40.

        Better sell now. While the price is still in the 50's

        : )

    • Anybody knows what is the whisper number on the RMBS. In any case let us discuss the hunches / gut feelings on the movement tomorrow. 6 cents is not bad. It meets and exceeds the street by 20%, isnt it ??

      Let me give out mine first. I say it will ride high around 56 at the open and than may stabilize to a net gain of of about 2.

      Let us have many responses and discuss this out.

      Thanks folks !!

11.89-0.05(-0.42%)Aug 21 4:00 PMEDT

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