Glossary What's the best guess for the stock price in 1-2 years? Investors fix targets for most stocks by estimating future earnings per share and then applying a price-to-earnings "multiple", also known as the P/E ratio. Companies with the most consistent earnings history or strongest growth prospects receive the highest P/E multiples. We calculate price targets for the current and next fiscal year by applying the stock's current multiple to the average professional analyst's estimate. Valuation using Rambus's current multiple (P/E):
Fiscal Year Est Low/High Price Range Avg. Est. Price % Change for Average 9/2000 $120.70-$192.60 $156.65 73.33% 9/2001 $952.73-$952.73 $952.73 954.19%
Rambus current price: $90.38 Rambus current multiple (P/E): 256.80
Rambus average 9/2000 estimate: $0.61 Rambus low 9/2000 estimate: $0.47 Rambus high 9/2000 estimate: $0.75
Rambus average 9/2001 estimate: $3.71 Rambus low 9/2001 estimate: $3.71 Rambus high 9/2001 estimate: $3.71
What's the best guess for the stock if it were valued like its peers? Investors often come to believe that a stock is undervalued or overvalued compared to other stocks in its industrial group. To calculate an alternate target price for the current and next fiscal year based on those beliefs, investors can apply the average PE multiple for a company's industrial group to the average professional analyst's earnings estimate for the company in those periods.
Valuation using the industry's current multiple (P/E):
Fiscal Year Est. Price % Change 9/2000 $160.80 77.92% 9/2001 $977.96 982.11%
Rambus current price: $90.38 Semiconductor - Memory Chips group current multiple (P/E): 263.60
Rambus average 9/2000 analyst estimate: $0.61 Rambus average 9/2001 analyst estimate: $3.71
How certain is the price estimate? Investors estimate the level of unanimity about a stock's prospects among analysts by calculating the range between the most optimistic and most pessimistic estimates.
Average number of analysts covering Rambus: 3 Rambus analysts' high/low spread: 30% Rambus analysts' confidence: low