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Astronics Corporation Message Board

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  • Eggplant101 Eggplant101 Feb 3, 2003 10:13 PM Flag

    Astronics Conference call

    I have some sad news for y'all: your beloved ATRO was a flash in the pan. A few years of good growth from a one shot DOD windfall plus great packaging results from several years of a too strong economy had y'all believing that you were a bunch of stock picking geniuses. Now reality sets in: the aerospace business is in a multi-year secular decline, and packaging--who the heck knows, but clearly the economy is in the crapper, and the wind won't blow differently for ModPac. Sure, mgt was reasonably good (y'all were eager to excuse the nepotism question), but to paraphrase Warren Buffett: better to have a good business with bad mgt than a bad business with good mgt, because you can always change the mgt.
    Reality: ATRO stock is ridiculously overvalued at $6. Y'all are just praying for deliverance from the next DoD windfall--the JSF project. But in 2008!!! You're nuts. JSF is an absurd waste of taxpayer money and the nation doesn't need it. There are no enemies with technology and armed forces that can not be easily defeated by existing combat aircraft. The 2003 budget deficit will be $307 billion. Even the Republicans won't allow $100 billion--or whatever the # is--to be flushed away on such a collosal waste of money. ATRO will be $4 in a year.

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    • My feelings exactly, but I would imagine that Mr. Brainard will take exception to your post as he has mine and others. During the conference call, Tony Ryder alluded to the fact that Astronics is still actively buying back shares every day. My feelings have been that they are about the only willing customer for the stock at this time, and they are working hard to keep the $6.00 range in place till at least after the listing and distribution of the MP stock.
      Your $4.00 figure will be much sooner then year end. More then likely it will arrive right after the spinoff. The other disaster would come if one of the funds holding a large position decides they have had enough but can't find a buyer.

 
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