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Astronics Corporation Message Board

  • brainard brainard Apr 12, 2000 9:30 PM Flag

    Update

    Received a return call from Mr. Yessa this
    evening. Unfortunately I did not have all my questions in
    front of me when he called so I bounced around a bit
    when talking with him and thus my report will be a
    little less focused than I would like.

    There were
    no company announcements to account for today's
    stock action. Mr. Yessa seems genuinely surprised by
    the price drop. We discussed a number of different
    items. Earnings are due out next week. The move to the
    new facilities in NY were completed in the first
    quarter and operations in the plant are going well. The
    recently announce Tyco Healthcare contract represents
    about $3.5 million in annual incremental
    business.

    I was a little worried about the drop in gross
    profit margins in the 4th quarter. Was afraid it
    represented low margins on the new F-16 contract. Was very
    happy to learn that the added costs were associated
    with the moving into new facilites that is now
    finished. Some of these costs are likely to show up in the
    first quarter also, but going forward from here the
    major up front costs for all their new business should
    be behind them.

    This last point is what I
    think is the most important thing to keep in mind. The
    F-16 contract is major expansion of their aerospace
    business. The company has incurred some major startup costs
    in getting this business going. But even with these
    costs holding results back, the company was able to
    report respectable growth in the 4th quarter and should
    do so again this quarter.

    Any concerns at
    this point are short term concerns at best. The
    fundamentals for the company remain strong and the outlook
    bright.

    CEB

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    • is almost six times higher than it was at the end
      of April just a couple of weeks ago! MFI was
      slightly over 3, now it is over 18. This is a significant
      change IMO, and it is usually harbinger of higher prices
      [money is flowing into buying ATRO shares, rather than
      flowing out].

    • Don't you just love these Yo-Yo's that come out
      of the blue and share their wisdom ....
      NOT!!

      Now the spam is even more meaningless than
      usual.

      On a more interesting note, lots of activity today
      with most trading going at the bid of $8.875. Kind of
      hope the buyer steps aside so as to create an even
      better accumulation point.

      Any thoughts from the
      "investors" on this thread?

      CEB

    • The company is fundimentally solid. But 1/4
      trillion of margin coming out of the market,will result in
      over a trillin $ of forced liquidation.All stocks will
      get hit and many market makers will go out of
      business. Wait until mid- summer before entering the
      market.

    • How low will we go???

      People getting tired
      of waiting ... or more growing pains in the 2nd
      quarter???

      Since a year over year earnings decline is very
      unlikely anytime this year, with $0.80 EPS in the bank
      todays prices are starting to look very attractive.


      If this was a baseball game and you knew you were
      going to score all your runs in the last three innings
      and you knew the other team would score in the first
      innings (cost vs benefits of growth), would you go home
      after the fifth inning?? If you were really smart you
      would have arrived at the game during the fifth inning.
      Unfortunately, like most folks on this board we all arrived
      pre-game. Some of us pre-season and some even before the
      stadium was built!!

      We have waited this long, what
      is another couple of months. History has said $8-$9
      is a good buying area.

      CEB

      PS:
      Question for Mr Yessa, if my dad, myself and my three
      brothers buy enough stock can we come to the next board
      meeting?

    • I'm new. Have held ATRO for about 4 years, bot
      right after they bot the New Hampshire business from
      Loctite. That was very late 1995. The next 2 1/2 years
      were generally positive. The last year and a half the
      stock has done nothing. It seems that Kevin Keane is
      very fond of proclaiming "nth consecutive quarter of
      record LTM EPS" etc. I have to wonder whether he has
      sought to, er, sort of save some earnings for future
      periods to ensure that he can keep making that claim. Any
      thoughts?

      If ATRO didn't win the F-16 contract, who would it
      have gone to? I can't believe they are a sole supplier
      for this stuff.

    • Kind of an understatement ... reminds me of when
      Custer said "over that ridge there are friendly
      indians"!

      We have been slumbering for over two years now. If
      it takes much longer for the fruits of growth to
      appear, we might need some blond with a tub of margerine
      to wake us up.

      CEB

    • to exchange useful information on ATRO and other
      stocks. I would like to see more volume in ATRO before
      trading it. I am glad at your success. I'm surprised to
      see how little trading stock is available: the MMs
      may hold on to it tight, or simply have only a
      limited amount on hand [which maybe a direct reflection
      of the seemingly wide spread]. ATRO is a core
      holding for me and a circle of friends.

      As to
      IFMX, many THANKS for the details. I have made several
      trades Buying at 10 1/2 and Selling from 11 1/8 to 11
      5/16 area, some of it in IRA accounts. Keep me posted
      on developments. I'll read the messages
      mentioned.

      To return the favor, and not knowing your interest,
      let me mention for your possible review: ABTL [review
      BV, Cash per share, compare it to stock price; check
      low float, then glance at 82% short interest!;
      perhaps a short squeeze is possible]; BYND [a lesser but
      similar situation]; ZAP [BV + Cash = 3x stock price!];
      MDSLF [read messages by Mister Ex & enzyman for
      interesting R&D developments, both believe in what they say
      and are solid; this stock is not for everyone, it can
      be volatile either way]. Do thorough DD to determine
      suitability to your goals. I have fun with them, while
      waiting for ATRO to come out of it's periodic slumber.

    • I still consider it as a trading vehicle. You can
      often buy a little @ 1/16th above the bid when it is
      slumping, and sell it at 1/16th below the ask when it's
      climbing. Just think how many extra shares we'd have if we
      always had a Buy order in at 9 1/16 & a Sell order in at
      10 15/16?? 5-6 revolutions like that would have
      resulted in 100% profit (or, doubled your shares). Wish I
      did it more often, myself. But I have been in & out
      six times; five with pretty good gains per months
      held (lost only a few (9?)cents/share in my one slip).

    • There are some uncertainties about IFMX,
      revolving around their one-Q unexpected flat license
      revenues. Please read many interesting posts this week-end
      before going whole-hog. Take "triggerfish" comments with
      a grain of salt (a disgruntled former employee; but
      does make points), and read Enrico's post #62168. The
      stock "should" double in the next 6 months, assuming
      that earnings projections are not reduced, but perhaps
      the jury's out on that. I still think it's a great
      investment, but there is no near-term rush until the recent
      questions are answered.

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