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Market Vectors Retail ETF Message Board

  • keybotthequant keybotthequant Apr 7, 2011 10:19 PM Flag

    RTH Chart

    Everyone sure is throwing confetti over retail.

    Chart is setting up with negative divergence so price will move sideways to sideways down moving forward.

    The Commentary:

    RTH retail weekly chart purple lines show price moving up from the March 2009 bottom into the April 2010 top. Negative divergence spanked it down but the RSI was not negatively diverged, and, since it carries a lot of clout, it wanted to see a higher price again, and, in late 2010 price came back up. The February top was marked with negative divergence blue lines which gave the go ahead to go short. Now price comes back up again and needs only a smidge more to confirm the negative divergence brown lines across the board and down she will go.

    The high gasoline cost will start to cut into retail sales which would reinforce the bearish posture setting up in the chart. The lower rail of that brown rising wedge will become important as time ticks by--price is only two bucks above it right now, and a confluence is formed with the 20 MA as well making the 105.5 to 106.0 area a critical line in the sand for RTH. If 106 is lost, the RTH is not only in trouble but this will cause broad market weakness as well.

    For the RTH chart google keystone speculator or view his charts at stockcharts public charts list keystone speculator.

69.14-1.76(-2.48%)Feb 5 4:00 PMEST