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The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Message Board

  • smoothinvestorguy smoothinvestorguy Mar 17, 2008 1:07 PM Flag

    Citigroup RECOMMENDING going LONG GS>..

    It may suprise some of you as it suprised me, but Citigroup's analysis shows that share prices of downgraded stocks decline roughly 25% in the 12 months leading up to the downgrade, and rise 50% in the 12 months post-downgrade.

    In otherwords, they are recommending GS shares after the UBS downgrade to Neutral.

    I read UBS's report. They cut everyone. They downgraded GS, LEH, AMTD, BK, STT, & IVZ to Neutral from Buy. They lowered their GS target to $175 from $220.

    Here's a quote from Barrons...

    "BSC may write down as much as $300M of commercial mortgage-related assets and LEH's write-down may be more than $700M, while GS and MS may write down $500M each," estimates Charles Peabody at Portales Partners. In the leveraged-loan arena, Peabody anticipates a $2B write-down from Goldman, and write downs of up to $1B each at LEH and MS. Consensus estimates put LEH's earnings at 72c a share, down 63%, while MS is thought to have earned $1.03, down 53%.

175.54-0.41(-0.23%)Jul 29 4:00 PMEDT

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