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The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Message Board

  • swingtrader3030 swingtrader3030 Jun 13, 2011 5:49 PM Flag

    Matrix Analytix = GS?

    Way too accurate, they went short right at the top

    FEBRUARY 24, 2011
    10:24AM EST
    Putting a big short on financials this morning, short GS $163.20s, BAC at $14.00, MS at $29.38, JPM at $46.04....as noted yesterday before the close (see 3:15PM entry) financials were our next area of interest with respect to shorts as we believe recent weakness in both US Treasuries and the US Dollar in the face of a sharp increase in volatility in equities validates our thesis that central banks no longer view US assets as safe havens but rather assets with increased risk due to concerns over budget deficits on the federal and state level as well as irresponsible monetary policy decisions (Bernanke continues to print money in the face of rapidly rising inflation levels)...moreover, this underlying weakness comes ahead of a looming vote on US debt limits which need to be raised in the few weeks otherwise the US will default on its debt and Treasuries will plummet (even if debt ceiling is raised, expect bond yields to rise as US will be selling even more Treasuries to finance its budge deficits, in other words only outcome is taking on more debt or defaulting)...with respect to financials, we expect this discussion over US debt will likely produce concerns over US credit quality and will create another headwind for equities where banks will likely feel the brunt of the sell pressure due to their strong sensitivity to changes in perceptions of credit quality...lastly, with Oil prices elevated, concerns over stagflation (which we identified as a major risk in 2011) are increasing and are adding to concerns over consumer spending and overall US growth and this will also translate into heightened worries over credit quality and will likely produce concerns over possibility of a double dip in housing which of course would also add to downside pressure in banks...also note European sovereign debt issues are far from over (Portugese debt yields have been quietly rising over the past couple weeks) and any resurrection of concerns over seas will also produce questions over US bank exposure to European debt...in other words, appear there is a perfect storm of concerns brewing within financials

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GS
189.59-0.16(-0.08%)Nov 21 4:00 PMEST

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