Latest slide show to be shown at Lehman Bros energy conference. Slides 12, 17, 19 & 22 say it all. Also, remove one time charge for Q2 bond refinancing and the bottom line is a powerful message. I'm buying back in at these levels.
There is a useful primer on LNG issues in today's NYTimes. You can get it on line by going to nytimes.com and follow the setup to sign in directions and when you get in hit business and scroll down thru recent articles. You are looking for one by Simon Romero. This is not a difficult process at all and the nytimes is often a very good resource, especially for some off-beat reporting on political and other issues related to world energy commodity markets.
Here's a brief section from the article:
"The United States is already the world's largest natural gas producer, and domestic production is expected to increase to 28.5 trillion cubic feet in 2020 from 19.1 trillion cubic feet in 2000, according to the Energy Information Administration. Still, demand is expected to far outstrip production, growing to 33.8 trillion cubic feet by 2020 from 22.8 trillion cubic feet in 2000.
The gas to close that gap � more than five trillion cubic feet, a 40 percent increase in 20 years � will have to come largely from outside the United States.
Almost all of America's imported natural gas currently comes by pipeline from Canada. But a growing market for gas within Canada and rapidly depleting Canadian wells are expected to weaken that country's ability to increase exports. Mexico, though believed to have large untapped gas reserves, is mired in nationalist debate over making it easier for foreign financiers and companies to explore for gas.
As a result, Mexico, a power in crude oil, is a growing importer of natural gas � and an attractive base for liquefied natural gas receiving terminals, which cost as much as $700 million to build. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development recently forecast that the percentage of North America's gas from imports would climb to 26 percent by 2030 from just 1 percent today."
One of the things you have to wonder about, obviously, is how we're going to increase production 40% in the next 18 years if we can't do it now @ $5Ng.
Nonetheless, the article contains lots of useful facts and I recommend it to anyone who just wants to think about the future of the international LNG market.
12, 17, 19 and 22 are essentially the same slides that DNR has been using in their show for the last 6 months and they are kind of the DNR story.
With regard to the above-mentioned story. DNR has been finding new reserves of approximately twice what they produce at a finding cost of about $6 per barrel. Admittedly, their costs have to be low on the Mississippi stuff because LOE there is much higher. Last time I looked their overall drilling success rate was around 80% (I am going to check that.)
How can you complain about those statistics?
Take a peek at the slides in the Sept. presentation which Soscorp recommended.
Hi Peter I don't remember DNR projecting 33% annual oil production increases in each of the next 5 years from existing properties (slide 12). I was able to confirm with DNR IR that the uprade at Jackson Dome facility has been completed. I was also told to expect a news release on N. Lorette field within next two weeks. Only remaining concern is the TPG overhang.