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Denbury Resources Inc. Message Board

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  • harehau harehau Mar 28, 2008 12:46 PM Flag

    You bank holders...you know who you are.....

    It feels like the dollar can't fall much further. This may be a naive, simplistic analysis but having just come back from Europe, I can't see how the dollar can fall much further, there were few Americans over there. And having paid $8 for a gallon of diesel, you understand why they drive the tiny cars. Looking at the supply/demand relationship for oil, with US demand falling off, probably China as well, Saudi sitting on 6 to 9 mbod excess capacity and non OPEC supplies increasing, how can oil continue the move higher, barring a political threat. Looked at the EIA price projections last year which called for the high end of $95 per barrel in 2030, and before the next report comes out, we have already exceeded that. Are we setting ourselves up for the same price crash that we saw a few years ago, maybe not to the same extent. Not too long ago, I felt that $60 was not sustainable. Most of my investments are in energy and while I have reduced some in the fall, it feels like this may be close to a top. If anyone has a perspective, your thoughts would be appreciated.

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    • Harehau-
      commodity market for energy sector here is saying
      short term correction on profit taking- bull market in tact. I took some nice gains in
      a few e&ps recently-- & am waiting for a good pullback to re-enter. I'm still waiting for a good dip---not sure I'm going to get one.

      T.Boone thought we'd fall back to 95 1st Q, now thinks we won't go below $100.- You can pull up his latest tv interview on the net.

      If you're in for the long haul- I believe most here would agree that energy overall is going higher on supply/demand. Sure negatives abound, cost control & demand erosion due to high prices & a plethora of others. Just take a gander at the refiners this year as compared to last year. It will be interesting to see how that unfolds.

      I don't know about the buck--but I'n not selling my gold stock hedges. I'm steeling myself
      for the restaurant bills in Rome on my upcoming trip. I may just pack a jar of peanut butter & jelly & saltines in case it's all too much to bear.
      PARK

      • 1 Reply to parkridge77
      • Thanks for the comments. We were in France and the wine was relatively cheap. After a couple of glasses, the prices didn't matter so much. I did read the Pickens' interviews, he seems to have a better feel for the market than anyone out there and he changes course and admits when he is wrong. Also, he sees nat gas as the preferred investment because of the oil/gas ratio. We still don't seem to have the mindset that oil prices won't pullback. Most commentators mention $30 (or whatever) of speculation/political risk in the price. I still wonder if the erosion we will see in demand will be absorbed by the increase global growth.

    • Looking at the supply/demand relationship for oil, with US demand falling off, probably China as well, Saudi sitting on 6 to 9 mbod excess capacity and non OPEC supplies increasing, how can oil continue the move higher, barring a political threat. Looked at the EIA price projections last year which called for the high end of $95 per barrel in 2030, and before the next report comes out, we have already exceeded that. Are we setting ourselves up for the same price crash that we saw a few years ago, maybe not to the same extent. Not too long ago, I felt that $60 was not sustainable. Most of my investments are in energy and while I have reduced some in the fall, it feels like this may be close to a top. If anyone has a perspective, your thoughts would be appreciated.> harehau

      The projections have been overly consrervative for the last several years. It's questionable whether the Saudi's have anything near that in excess capacity and a great many experts find their reserves hugely overestimated.

      Demand might drop here slightly, but in China? Not likely. Same for India and the rest of the emerging world.

      All I have to do is look at my in laws. I'm married to an immigrant from an emerging country who comes from a large family. In the extended family of roughly 40 adults, over half of them college educated, there's one car and one small motorcycle. There isn't a single air conditioner. They aren't going to stay that way. The entreprennurial snowball has started to roll downhill there and elsewhere.

      In microcosym that's the story of the future of worldwide energy demand.

      Oil and gas will continue to rise with short term peaks and valleys up to the point where other sources become competitive.

    • Like many on this board, I am a long Time E&P investor.

      I generally stick with the haves as opposed to the have-nots The haves being resource rich. Companies Like CHK,XTO,DVN,DNR,ECA,EOG to name a few.

      The Cash Margins are huge and many protect those margins with hedges.

      I will trade a bit when I think Market moves up or down.

      Today I added some CHK when price fell below the Secondary price of 45.75. some think Aubrey moves to aggressively but he has amassed a huge land postion in major shale areas.

      I also added some MER today,but that is another story

 
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