I do not like what happened today. The $SPX rolled over in sympathy with the $SSEC and commodities (but not necessarily commodity stocks) took off northward.
Hopefully this topic will get our good friend, Justabettin, to get off his damn tractor and stop discing those fields to nano-particledom. The guy may be hayseed at heart but he can read a chart.
My problem with that chart is simple: we had a legitimate chance to break the idea of lower highs and lower lows and the second we approached the last lower high, we rolled over. This could be overcome, I suppose, by better than expected reports from the financials coming up. But I am still concerned. Additionally, I am concerned because, as I've observed before, it is hard to have a continuing strong market when the leadership is the XLE not the XLF.
Tax time makes me wonder what to do with appreciated stocks out of IRA. If the Demos win in November, surely we will see a change in Cap Gains next year, Should I consider unloading before year's end if that happens? Thoughts on that?
I really hate to pay tax!
Ah, Park...I still have money on the sidelines I was going to deploy LAST spring for "when energy dipped". Instead it took off (and the markets were still kind to me, even with 30+% on the sidelines).
The fear reading seems pretty high. Just listened to a guy on Fast Money, would go long the banks and short the brokers. Mentioned long WB and C, short Goldman. He's using relative book values for justification but book values have been somewhat uncertain. The writeoffs originally were going to be $100 billion and now it could be a trillion. The panel agreed, with a stop at 52 week lows. I didn't think the January one was the last but I think we may be there. Although Buffet today in his interview said everyone expects a short and shallow dip but he is not so sure. We have $20 trillion in residential real estate and $11 billion in mortages, 55% LTV which seems like a fairly good cushion. I would buy them because I am thoroughly disgusted, 9+, with them at this point. But it takes a leap of faith, trying to analyze it won't get you there. The WB CEO said just a few weeks ago that the dividend was safe and the GE experience scared everyone. I did buy a community bank last week that is selling at less than 120% of tangible book value but the exposure to real estate there as in the money center banks, and the money centers also have consumer risk as well. C, selling a book value and 2 x tangible, still remains my favorite with 2 trillion in assets and $130 billion in market value, already lost $160 billion, with a great global exposure, where everyone wants to be for the future.
Hare & all,
so given WB's empahsis on street sentiment---where do you think we are in the fear factor on a 1-10 scale. Just curious. I would have given
1/22/08 a solid 7.2 reading. Don't have a feel for it today---has struck me as very bi-polar, sometimes on a daily basis---more a vague malaise than pungent fear.
Tough for me ,personally, to gauge WB's fear/buy-greed/sell adage. He certainly put his money where his yap is on his PTR sale this year- smack at the top just about.
I made some terrific buys of POT this year
operating on the fear factor. Even scared myself at the time for heaven's sake.
But I sorely misread/mis-sensed the greedy side of the equation with my premature
APA & DVN sale. No complaints given that I redeployed some gains into a big play on POT-- but as the days & ticks go by, I am unhappy to have missed a re-entry into the energy names I follow for the future, by such a large margin--
a la APA. I was ready to pay up-- just not quite this much. Jeese.
I still have earmarked energy money on the sidelines- not sure where/when I'll deploy.
Boston LNG terminal opens 4/16 I read. Assume,
Peter you'll be monitoring that closely for the board? The Louisana terminal that opened in 2005 with a total capacity of 6bcf/day had total receipts this year of less than 1bcf.
Today, I echo Peter's Friday grumpiness; got the taxman hit blues big time-- so much so that
serious thoughts of being proactive on the tax reform front are dancing in the head.
AMT & the mansion tax here in NY which have not been revised to reflect decades of price inflation-- drive me NUTZ!
My accountant who lives in northern Maine & shops tax fee in New Hampshire, keeps telling me
we should move there. Rathole really is stomach roiling at tax-time.
Even on long term cap gains of 15% , when the AMT
kicks in, that jumps to 26% + 17% city & state= 42% for long term cap gains. Sacre bleu !
Thanks, probably just a reflection of what I have learned reading the comments on this board. Just looked at an interview with Buffet on CNN Money.com with Fortune. They asked how he gets his ideas and he say he reads all day. He started with the point that the efficient market theory is not always valid, gave an example of buying auction rate securities. He always has a way of boiling things down to their essence. The thing that jumped out at me is if Buffet can't understand the complexity of current finance, how could we mere humans do it. He says you really have to rely on the skills/integrity of the CEO. And he said he doesn't rely on macro data in his decisions. But he does emphasize that being greedy when everyone else is fearful is a good strategy.
"Our century in the limelight may have passed but we could still enjoy a piece of the global explosion that appears to be in its infancy."
I think that that is about as mature and intelligent a comment as I have heard out here on these boards in a year. To my mind, that is exactly the right way to look at it. The way to begin, I think, is to think like a citizen of the world, embracing the responsibility and the opportunity that comes with such an outlook.
Hopefully this topic will get our good friend, Justabettin, to get off his damn tractor and stop discing those fields to nano-particledom.
Yea been busy man thats for sure. Lots to do. The $SPX has been behaving itself since the last Houdini escape routine performed by Mr Bernanke. It seems just a bit overbought in here. Testing the 50dma is important. I have not kept with the news that much but barring a BS event it would seem it should hold up in the 1340 area.
I will point out however the $VIX looks like it is testing support with a double bottom at the 200dma. It has been awhile since this has been violated so you could think some profit taking going on.
The $ECC hit 158.5 yesterday an all time high. If the buck were to fail this time 160 is in the cards. If I were to make a guess and holding to the theme that there is no major breaking news I would bet we have another little rally in the $USD holding support in the 71.5 area. I sold out yesterday as I am speculating we will get another buying opportunity soon. It is hard to tell which way the dollar will break in here so I quessed up as it should bring the commodity stocks down. In a nutshell we could be getting in a routine like the last time I posted and I will go back to the well of fortune and stick a toe or two in the water if these scenerios play out. Got to go the animals are gettin restless with You Aint Nothing But A Houndog leading the chorus line.
Peter and whoever gives a hoot:
Well the 1341 50dma has been violated a bit. The MACD looks menacing but has not broken through. The RSI could fall back to the 30 level as it is still a little overbought in here using the 6mo chart as a guideline. There is still a small support just under 1325 but my algorithm sees 1312. The defense line of 1275 could come into play in which would not hurt my feelings as you probably know I miss the the volatility. Speaking of such the $VIX almost broke out yesterday. It is in a sideways move here and like many others including the $USD $ECC it is hard to guess which way it will go. So I am sitting on the fence checking now and again for an opening. I still believe we will have a little buck rally. Maybe I should say I am hoping. Well Ive got to go before Hound Dog lets me know its past his feeding time and wakes Mrs Bettin up. His internal clock is just amazing.
Just listened to Joseph Stieglitz on CNBC after having digested the WSJ headlines of worldwide inflation, recession possibilities. Although the IMF sees growth of half a percent next year in the US, not that devastating. Stieglitz sees further depreciation of housing assets. And the ECB doesn't lower rates. Congress is ready to give away the store to prop up housing. We are trying once again to buy our way out of this, delaying the pain and probably making it worse. And energy prices are out of sync with the economy. If you are a contrarian, maybe the markets have already priced the downturn in. Looked at S and P sectors and finance is down to 16% of the 500, what was it a couple of years ago, 23%. The energy run should continue because of the dollar but it seems that it has to pull back at some point. And the momentum players and traders pulling back could make it a swift retreat. And Bernancke with his Depression expertise is probably ready to lower rates to whatever it takes to turn this around. And we have the Democrats that are going to raise taxes, that should help the economy. And we thought we would never have to battle runaway inflation again.