Been using the dont look technique along with enjoying the outdoors this wonderful spring here in the Shenendoah Valley. I see the $SPX sitting on the 50dma. It is interesting looking at the C chart. A temptation from a technical standpoint but something smells fishy and appears to me at this moment to be but a headfake. I will admit to being out of touch but it would be hard to find a fundamental reason for the banks to be the leading indicator we would love to see.
Looking at the futures this morning after listening to the DC webcast it seems we are in contango.
Mostly I just wanted to say hey.
Peter et al:
Looks like the old 1310 could be back in the playbook. I notice the VIX making a strong move on my algorithm. Mr Bernanke might be out of magic tricks if the 1275 looks us in the face. Anyway its getting interesting. My trigger finger is starting to twitch a bit. I think its time to pay heed in here.
I suspect that in a year or two when the full cost of our current actions become known, the American public will want some blood from the group that sold us our two wars.>williahmw
Going on 7 years now and no new attacks on US soil. Let's blame Bush.
I wonder, what do you suppose the cost of another 9/11 or two would have been? It's all conjecture, by proponents and by those who make the claim it's money wasted.
The military estimates that it has killed between 25-30 thousand foreign fighters in Iraq, people from outside that country who have come there to attack US troops. Apparantly some think those people would have just sat around camel dung fires in the desert, holding hands, and singing "Kumbaya" iof saddam were still in place. Others might have the opinion a significant number of those martyrs for Allah would have directed their efforts elsewhere including/especially those targeting US interests abroad and even here.
I think if I were living in Europe and not in perfect touch with what was going on in the US, I might have the same worry. But I can almost guarantee you that it will not happen. In support of that thesis, administration folks today actually tried to throw oil on the waters (I'm ashamed of myself for that one.) by asserting that the Israeli statement was unwarranted since there had been no material changes in the Irani program in recent months and the time for actual concern is well down the road.
I would also base my guarantee idea on the current mood of the country, which is not good. Were the sitting President to take hostile action against anyone else on an un-provoked basis, at this stage, he would be guaranteeing a Republican defeat in the next election of Goldwater-like proportions. If we opened another front, Senator McCain might carry as few as 10 states--none of them heavily populated. As it sits now, if Senator McCain runs a very good campaign he has some chance--not a very good one--but some chance of winning. The sitting President is not going to be remembered on top of everything else that he will be remembered for as the guy who jinxed his party willy-nilly at the last minute.
I'm well up for the week but, like Harehau, I'm neither proud of it nor am I comfortable with many of the issues in the market. Job one is to protect my family interests. That I am doing. Job two thru job six is to extend that idea as best I can to a broader group. Luckily, as I canvas my friends and associates, most are doing fine. But I don't think that they really understand what is afoot and I'm not sure that they are as well prepared as they believe themselves to be. For the many who have very little ability to defend their own interests and who are nowhere near sufficiently well-off to withstand too much more of what is being dished out, I am very concerned. Some commentator said today that it took oil 174 years to get to $65 and that it took only one additional year for it to add another $65. That might not be exactly correct but it is so close to being true that it doesn't make sense to quibble.
Peter, The European markets were positive before the bad news from the States. They then fell, more or less vertically. My stocks are up for the week, but don´t ask why. There is more and more comment that we plan to attack Iran before Bush goes out of office. If that happens, expect $250 oil. I wish I owned only gold coins !! Bed time. Regards, Hugh
Nice to hear from you. The old chickens coming home to roost theory. Interestingly, if you use the $USD index, which is a basket of currencies against the dollar, the action today did drop below the 50 DMA but it is still about 2 points @ 22.40 above its most recent low.
If you want to know my honest belief about what we saw all week, not just today, I'd say that the markets were just nuts from start to finish. Oil down $4 one day and up $6 the next? The ten year treasury up from 3.92 last week to a high of 4.05 a couple of days ago and then right back down to 3.92 close today. Nuts, I tell you. Nothing has changed in the last little bit in the fundamentals for anything--not oil, world economic growth, nor corporate health.
So, I'm not fighting it. Energy and commodities are still the way to play. Anything that is dependent on the US consumer--fuhgedaboutit. View what happened to the refiners today.
Peter, Perhaps our economy is now in an unstable region. A talker on CNBC Europe noted that the world´s number one reserve currency was in freefall and holders or it are trying to dump it.
Certainly, history gives us examples of wealthy countries ruining themselves by either wars of conquest or attempting to keep unwilling colonies. (Athens-Sparta, Rome, UK, The Netherlands, and France come to mind.) I suspect that in a year or two when the full cost of our current actions become known, the American public will want some blood from the group that sold us our two wars.
All of this makes investing difficult, what? Regards, Hugh
JB et al,
Well, as our English friends might say, that was a right sorry mess. Save for energy which fared reasonably well, everything that you wouldn't have wanted to have happen today did happen.
The market sold off right into the close and closed very nearly on the low for the day. Resistance @ 22.60 in the VIX was crushed by a buck. 1375-odd in the SPX was also taken out by 15 points. Unless the number sucks back up to that level on Monday you'd expect 1375 to become resistance just as it was for much of the late winter and early spring. Worse, in some respects, is the $WTIC chart. This will be hard to believe but, technically, the commodity isn't going to show as overbought at any indicator on a 6 month chart on today's rise.
Peter-- you're RIGHT!!! ( again---how boring).
It was up 4.60 for a few hours after-market.
I think, yes-- there must be a bug in the program
when I think back to other "flukes" that somehow went poof later in the AH session.
Thanks for checking that out. This sell off could get interesting here.
I checked Fidelity and I can find no bump in DO after hours. Bid 130, ask 136. . I'd absolutely ignore the Yahoo after market numbers as I think there's a bug in their program that tracks them.