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Denbury Resources Inc. Message Board

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  • harehau harehau Jun 23, 2008 5:51 PM Flag

    Barrons Bearish on Oil

    Peter, there are beginning to be projections that demand will not increase this year. The developed nations will use less and with the removal of subsidies, the developing ones will have to raise prices which could curb demand. If we are paying $4 a gallon, Germany $9 and China $3, China will have to at some point respond to that inequity. They won't be able to afford it long term. Same goes for India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Venezuela, Brazil, Mexico. It could have a dramatic effect on demand. And I don't subscribe to the peak oil theory. As for the recent run up, not that much has really happened to the supply/demand equation except the projections for the future. Everything is reversion to the mean, just have to determine what the mean is. It used to be that oil sold for $20 a barrel on an inflation adjusted basis, and that seemed to be the case for decades. Using that formula, we should probably be at $30 or some very low number. The world has changed but I question whether the norm is now $135 a barrel. I remember doing calculations assuming $100 oil back in the early $80s.

    As for coffee, I typically buy the French roast beans for $8 dollars a pound, grind them fine as you mentioned and use a French press. It is so fine that it take a lot of effort to strain the grounds. So I could say I'm in the sub 10 cent range. My kids say I'm not cheap, just frugal. But all is lost when they blow it on a Starbucks Vente whatever. Hare

 
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