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Denbury Resources Inc. Message Board

  • justabettin justabettin Jun 27, 2008 1:25 PM Flag

    Refiners

    Peter et al:

    Good heavens their taking a lickin. Any rest in the $WTIC should bring some action. VLO could head into the mid 30s by looking at the WITC chart. There is plenty of room left in the RSI. One interesting indicator is the OBV in VLO. One could construde this as accumulation.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=vlo

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24wtic

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    • quick move up, but a some give back time now.

    • Peter:

      I will work on it. It amazes me how they work in the tasty melodies with this tribal popular sound. I took Mrs Bettin out to eat at a fine resturaunt last week. Our waitress who was rather cute at first glance was having a rather tough time talking with metal hanging off of her lips. Then I noticed the real culprit. A ball of I am quessing was brass as big as a marble attached to her tongue. Like I said Im trying. The owner noticed me looking and just shrugged. As I was leaving he thanked us for coming and whispered to me. "At least I made her cover up the tatoos. Everybodys a James Dean. In my opinion it is getting old hat.

    • JB,

      Now that you're a corn tycoon, we have to get you to modernise your play list a little:

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9CUF9V5aAU

      Regards,

      Peter

    • Hi Peter:

      Im waiting for Park to step up to the plate. This is where the rubber meets the road.

    • JB,

      $30.78 and falling. The question is: is it a boy scout knife, a switchblade or the sword of damacles?

      Regards,

      Peter

    • Peter, I read somewhere in the past couple of days that Ed Hyman with ISI, an economist and purportedly one of the best forecast that fed funds rate will be 1% a year from now. That would agree with your assessment that the damage control will take some time. Hare

    • Hare,

      You might do fine with WM. It was clearly one of those that were most beat up today (-35% in a single session) but announced $40 billion of excess liquidity after hours. With any luck you'll be up 20% in a day. With WM, I think you might have a reasonable gamble and will find out about it quicker than you think. You either own zero or you own a $9 stock. So you may well have made a reasonable bet.

      I still wonder profoundly about the twin ideas of bottom fishing generally in either the financials or the refiners, however. And, you've got to admit it, what you are talking about is bottom fishing--the purchase of extraordinarily beat up assets. My opinion continues to be that the bad news for the banks and quasi banks will continue to roll in on a daily basis for a long time. Maybe you heard Ron Insana on CNBC today. He's obviously afraid of what is going on in the financials and said one of the scariest things that I've heard in a long time if I heard him correctly. He said "The Fed should drop interest rates to at least zero to inflate asset values."

      It's not a ridiculous idea, incidentally. But it is an idea that indicates how dangerous the situation is.

      On the refiners, I hear what JB is saying about support at $30.40 for VLO. But I'd point out to him that we observed the same thing about support at $49.50 or so. To that I'd also add that, traditionally, this is the time of year that you sell the refiners because the driving season is about to be over. Another observation that I'd make is that with the suspected cost of heating oil almost a double this upcoming season over last we will see very significant demand destruction. Homeowners will try and defend their ability to own a home by driving their car to work to earn a paycheck. If they feel that they have to and can get away with it, they will take something very much like the Japanese approach to home heating as they start to look at the idea of spending $4,000 to heat a 2700 sq. ft. home in the Northeast.

      In any event, I wish all bottom fishers well. I'm one myself. I'm just not ready yet.

      Regards,

      Peter

    • Moose, AllianceBerstein may be something to consider. I owned it before and sold it but it's back in the mid $40s, believe it went to almost $90. They are invesment managers and are organized as an LP so they basically pay out net income as a distribution. The consensus is $4.60 next year, which could be a stretch if the market keeps falling, but that's a 10% payout. Obviously, their earnings will vary with assets gathered and the market value, but Bernstein is good value manager. You do have to mess with the k 1s. For whatever that's worth. Hare

    • Peter, I'm not claiming this is the bottom. But if you listen to the gurus and consider the values, the financials look cheap. Take Citigroup. Merdith Whitney, Oppenheimer analyst, thinks C will lose $2 this year. They made around 70 cents last year and she predicts they will make a profit next year. Combining this year and last, that's less than a $7 billion loss and they have lost almost $200 billion in market value. In a couple of years, the franchise should be able to make $4 a share even with the asset sales. $40 minimum value in a few years. And they are still paying the dividend of $1.28, which would have covered the two year loss. I think they will continue the dividend although it wouldn't bother me if they cut it to add to capital. And the just sold their German retail business for $7+ billion. Just seems there is a considerable margin of safety.

      And there are other values. Just bought some more Wamu at mid $3 range. Look at it as a long term option with no expiration. Even Lehman thinks they will be in positve earnings territory the last half of 09 and won't have to raise more capital. If the franchise can earn $3 in a few years, then that's a 10 bagger. Hare

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