Peter, Moose- articles in WSJ today focus on China. Front page deals with China's "export machine" being threatened by the yuan's appreciation and other factors as well, labor laws adding costs. Half of the residents of Honghe, 50,000 people, made sweaters for export. Article supports Moose' assertion that China has the export infrastructure, which has been beneficial to their success. The US doesn't. The profit margins for the sweaters are now 30 cents vs. $2 in the past. Interesting final comment that they need to sell more sweaters in China, but you sense that is the problem, the domestic consumer market has not been a focus.
Another article asks "how fast will the yuan appreciate". It is already up 30% in past three years. And another, editorial, "there is no 'The Economy' that focuses on differences in the US economy, what you are referring to, the export/global sectors are expanding while the consumer areas are challenged. He says, "what used to be "the economy" is now just one part of the global chess board, and the data we have can be misleading, incomplete, and simultaneously right and wrong". My favorite quote from the article attributed to Joe Biden, " we are all entitled to our own opinions, not to our own facts". We seem to obsess about things like the Fed funds rate when key global issues will govern our domestic future. And in the meantime, energy prices keep going up. If the yuan continues to appreciate, coupled with price controls, demand may not be affected. Not facts, just my opinion. Cheers.
If the BRIC and other countries try to reign in inflation, which they very well may be forced to do, the possible appreciation of their currencies against the dollar could be potent. That would really change the world economic situation and perhaps not for the better. Instinct tells us that we're in for a lot of change over the next several years and that aspects of it will be likable or unlikeable depending on how we accept the change.
On a lighter note, my wife and I had much fun over the weekend including a very pleasant dinner with a visiting oilman we haven't seen in a few years and a successful outing at the modern auction. We got a really interesting bit of late sixties-early seventies political art.
We got a really interesting bit of late sixties-early seventies political art.
Is that the new thing or has that been on the A list of things to find for awhile.
I also found a nuber of interesting items this weekend. First and foremost is a mercury vial pendulum for my Japy Freres register clock. These are hard to find and I have been looking now and again for a couple of years now. The mercury works much better than the slugs that the clock repairers do.
One guy about my age was selling his fathers collection of old NYT amd WP newspaers from the thirtys and fortys. He kept the WW11 of importance papers. Three Hitler is Dead and political news from the day. Roosevelts death and many copies of D day and such. I need to do some research but they may be of value. I collect pocket knives and found a 5" Case folding hunter and a trapper both bone handled in good condition with some wear on the blades. A Johnson Century new in the box fishing reel for a buck. This is great trading material as the younger collectors find these appealing.
Peter, sounds like a good weekend. I am currently reading a book 1968: The Year That Rocked the World by Mark Kurlansky. 68 is the year I graduated from h s, but apparently I led a sheltered life. There was a lot going on in the world and politics were intense. Besides the civil rights, anti-war and Che posters here, in France they were producing hundreds of silk screen prints a day to promote their protests, and the protests in eastern Europe added their own art. Looks like interesting stuff. What did you buy?
As for the future, I wonder if we will look back on 2008 and call it the year that rocked the world in another way, when global growth collided with finite natural resources. The sub prime crisis may seem like a small footnote as BRIC implements its growth plans. And the more controlled aspects of their economies will cause mistakes to be made along the way with the risk of political turmoil. Enough philosophizing. Hare