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Denbury Resources Inc. Message Board

  • parkridge77 parkridge77 Jul 17, 2008 1:27 PM Flag


    quick flyby mid-day---Hi All,
    Xmas in July--- that's how I'm looking at it. Tough to judge exaclty where to enter--everyone has their own system/siganls.
    But,JUST, a CHK buy here in low 50s- well, think you got yoursel;f a deal son ! Good support at 50. ( I like that barn sign of yours--true grit 'n true heart)-think John Wayne.
    HK good support at 35-- anywhere in here I might add
    bought WFT----reports next week-- although SLB not faring too well here- earnings will be interesting for them tomorrow.
    DNR gets to 25 . I add. CLF 92 I buy. Do I wish I had sold my AEM at 80 now in ROTH- yes-- but holding for next go around-- it will be here soon enough is my line of thinking.

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    • well, that didnt work.

      if they gap em down tomorrow, then i may try again with a closing price as a stop.

      i think we are very close to a short term bottom.

      lots of trapped bulls im sure, so they will sell em every time they lift.

    • Hare,

      There are about 7 additional posts following this one that explain the most recent picture:

      Robry posts the numbers, which are designed to predict the weekly EIA natural gas storage report, very late every evening or early in the morning. Note the numbers in the subsequent Supply post.



    • Peter, thanks. Not familiar with Robry, what's the link.

    • Hare,

      On inflation, if we don't see any economic growth or if we see negative growth it is possible that we won't see core inflation higher than 2.37%. I can see many areas where I would predict, based on what I can see, low inflation or even deflation at least for some period of time--travel and leisure, clothing, trucks and autos, household furnishings. If we don't see any wage inflation, we won't see much higher rates of inflation no matter what happens with commodities.

      I put my opinions up on the gassers yesterday and in my response to Todd last week.

      (1) technical: no support levels are being respected by the stocks--a very bad sign. For example, many E & Ps took their 200 DMAs out to the southward (six month chart) without respecting those averages for a second. Also, absolutely no signs of bottoming patters. Just the opposite, in fact, with two days of tall filled candles.

      (2) fundamentals: this is a huge area of concern for me. From January to near the end of June we had a very bullish pattern of very low LNG imports resulting in a bullish S/D equation (significantly tighter than normal). That picture reversed itself about the week of July 4th. Now, even with very, very low LNG imports we have grown US supply so significantly (see Robry) that we can over-supply the market all on our own. BIG, BIG PROBLEM. And, you know me, I am not normally a shouter.

      It looks now like we're 3 Bs a day over-supplied (weather normalized). 3 Bs a day, all other things being equal, gets us back on track to store 3.45 Tcf by the end of injection season. 3 Bs a day of over-supply next winter translates into a requirement for a winter that is 10% colder than last year to keep storage at normal levels. I'd say that that math virtually assures that we have just the opposite of what I'd thought we'd have 3 weeks ago--sub $10 natural gas.

      There is an obvious support level for natural gas around $9.50 but the next one south isn't until $7.60 which is the January double bottom.

      I would hold my fire on all of the E & Ps until there is some bullish data. We might get a tradeable dead cat bounce at earnings season but my current thinking is that that's all it is--a dead cat bounce.



    • anyone bother looking at the 10 year monthly chart on DNR? I see a long term trend line come in at ~28. talk about a low risk entry. yes, it could gap down tomorrow, but buying here around 28.3 with a stop around 27.5 seems like a good risk reward trade to me. I did put this trade on. I would still sell the rallies in the energy names.

      this risk continues to be the selling in crude. and the shift towards financials.

      this is a very similar setup to DE a month ago, but it broke that line around 77, and then tumbled to 64, so be careful.


    • Peter, you and every other investment banker, hedge fund manager, private equity investor on the planet had the same idea but with 40 to 1 leverage. You are right, banks are increasing their net interest margins but are shrinking their balance sheets. Interesting that the 10 yr tips bonds is indicating 2.37% inflation. Believe that is down from 2.50% a couple of weeks ago. Somehow, I believe we are going to work our way out of this. I'm already seeing Texans that have driven pick ups forever buying mini cars.

      I'm trying to fight off the urge to buy more nat gas equities. What's your wisdom on fundamentals or technicals? Hare

    • anyone like xto here? market doesn't seem to like the earnings forecast.

    • Your Right, Aubrey knows only one speed and its full Throtle.

      He does however protect his rear with good hedges,

      He would like to Sell 25% of Fayetville and Marcellus on his terms.

      He has said CHK value $150 and has put his money where his mouth with open market purchases

      Stock performance is what it is all about and on page 27 of July presentation Aubrey gives CHK performance over last 10 years. First except 5 and 10 year and guess who "XTO".

      not included in Peers "DNR" ??????

    • True. The key measure will be Free Cash Flow, rather than non-cash hedging losses. ECA has lost "billions" over the years in hedging losses yet somehow manages to produce prodigeous amounts of cash year in and year out.

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