No jobs report yet but looking around the world we see the following: BDI down a bit yesterday but Asian exchanges and commodities are very firm virtually across the board. European exchanges, to the contrary are selling off on not very good news about the economic recovery (or lack thereof) there. Oil has followed all other commodities and the dollar continues weak although not with any dramatic dis-improvement this AM.
Robry expects a build of nearly 100 Bcf for this reporting week. Given the rise in electric generation from week prior that would be a continuing bearish report. If that happens, we'll be at about 530 Bcf greater than 5 year normal and headed towards filling storage much earlier than normal although not as early as many would expect, one thinks, because reasonably soon the storage operators will be beginning to shut off interruptable producers. That should happen about 5 or 6 weeks from now when storage is around 3 Tcf (This assumes that the hotter weather on our doorstep will reduce injections significantly from current pace.). Meanwhile, natural gas sits as $3.77 and the $2 contango for winter '10 is still firmly in place so anyone with good access to storage can make a bundle.
Jobs and GDP have just come in a bit bearish. Initial claims are 627,000 up 15,000--not good--and Q1 final GDP has been adjusted to -5.5%.
JPM has reported good earnings and has got the US futures towards back to even this am. The BDI is also up nicely again and many foreign exchanges are also up. But there are storm clouds on the horizon. Oil is weak. The recent leadership from the NASDAQ also looks a little tattered.
Robry is still focused on a mid 90s build number which is not a good answer. I note that front month UK natural gas is now trading just over 20 pence per therm--that's about $3.30 a US mcf or about where we are here now.
I will also close the FAS position today as I am going out of town tomorrow.I will be back on Sunday. Thanks again, JB,that was a great learning experience and a fun ride to boot.
Have a great week!
Yea this is a tough area. Its hard to tell. The 616 RIFIN center line has been defended. Mr VIX appears like he wants to give it up but he is close to oversold again. My bias is towards the longs but as we know that can change rapidly. If we get a new trend to the upside there will be better risk reward ventures. Like I said they just havent proved it yet. I wouldnt blame anyone who added at the 616. I would just like to see the $SPX get on up through there first. This 902.30 is the new resistence. Here we go up through 903.75. So now we have a 905 and I quess we can be on are way.
They cut through the one day at 43.30 FAS. Im just making sure they can hold on to this BB centerline. So far they have held in there. Weird day so far and Im thinking the traders have lost control in here so the support resistence lines are my focus along with the RSI and MACD lines. They have been stopped dead in their tracks. I am not adding in here. They havent proved they can do it yet. Especially the $SPX. The financials have their nose through. I would rather chase them later. Who knows Im jumpy all the time when we get in these areas.