Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Denbury Resources Inc. Message Board

  • clcrimmins clcrimmins Jul 21, 2009 1:50 PM Flag

    ECRI Indicators Update

    Good afternoon!

    Thank you, Peter, for your suggestion on posting ECRI on a regular basis and for your supporting words. Concern for others can be exhausting and time consuming, but decided a long time ago that that is what makes my life worth living. So no complaints but do need to come up for air often—same as I do in my swimming. I wish you well in your concern and endeavors with others. And, again, thanks for all your input on this board (as well as all DNR posters).

    I became interested in ECRI many years ago and signed up for their non-subscriber access and have kept a spreadsheet of their data for several years. There are gaps over the last couple of years but here is a summary of the WLI (weekly leading indicator) numbers since last fall. They do correct past numbers so one must be alert to that. Not sure how this will appear in Yahoo so hope it is readable.

    ECRI WLI WLI Growth

    7-Nov-08 110.4 -26.9
    14-Nov-08 107.9 -28.1
    21-Nov-08 106.4 -29.3
    28-Nov-08 109.0 -29.0
    5-Dec-08 106.5 -29.7
    12-Dec-08 106.7 -29.4
    19-Dec-08 107.5 -28.5
    26-Dec-08 108.3 -28.1
    2-Jan-09 109.9 -26.3
    9-Jan-09 109.0 -25.0
    16-Jan-09 108.1 -24.1
    23-Jan-09 107.8 -23.7
    30-Jan-09 107.3 -24.0
    6-Feb-09 106.7 -24.2
    13-Feb-09 107.5 -23.8
    20-Feb-09 106.0 -23.9
    27-Feb-09 105.4 -23.9
    6-Mar-09 105.1 -23.9
    13-Mar-09 105.6 -23.9
    20-Mar-09 106.0 -23.3
    27-Mar-09 106.4 -22.3
    3-Apr-09 107.5 -20.8
    10-Apr-09 107.4 -19.5
    17-Apr-09 107.5 -18.4
    24-Apr-09 108.2 -17.1
    1-May-09 109.9 -15.5
    8-May-09 111.3 -13.3
    15-May-09 111.5 -11.1
    22-May-09 112.6 -8.7
    29-May-09 114.4 -6.2
    5-Jun-09 116.3 -3.5
    12-Jun-09 117.3 -0.5
    19-Jun-09 117.9 2.4
    26-Jun-09 118.0 4.5
    3-Jul-09 119.0 6.2
    10-Jul-09 118.1 7.0

    December 5, 2008 was their lowest weekly growth number during this cycle.

    Again, the sites previously listed:

    http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1492/

    http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1489/

    http://www.businesscycle.com/

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • The update for ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index as of August 31, 2012 follows:
      (Source for data can be found at www dot businesscycle dot com / resources)

      Week Ending WLI ..Wly Change..WLI Growth..WLI..WLI Growth
      …………………………………………… Annualized

      30-Mar-12………..126.3……….0.5………. 0.9
      6-Apr-12…………..125.9……...-0.4………..1.7
      13-Apr-12………...123.8……...-2.1………..1.2
      20-Apr-12…………124.0………0.2………. 0.5
      27-Apr-12…………124.6………0.6………-0.1
      4-May-12………….125.4………0.8…….…0.0
      11-May-12………..124.4……...-1.0……….0.4
      18-May-12………..123.0………-1.4……… 0.1
      25-May-12………..122.3………-0.7……...-0.7
      1-Jun-12…………..121.3………-1.0……...-2.0
      8-Jun-12…………..121.9……….0.6………-3.0
      15-Jun-12…………121.2………-0.7………-3.5
      22-Jun-12…………121.7……….0.5………-3.2
      29-Jun-12…………121.9……….0.2………-2.8
      6-Jul-12…………..122.9……….1.0……….-2.7
      13-Jul-12……….…121.8………-1.1……... -2.3
      20-Jul-12…………122.7……….1.1………. -1.7
      27-Jul-12…………122.1………-0.6……… -1.3
      3-Aug-12…………122.5……….0.4………. -1.3
      10-Aug-12……....123.0……….0.5………. -0.4
      17-Aug-12…….....123.3……….0.3………. -0.1
      24-Aug-12……….123.6……….0.3……….. 0.6

      ……..

      http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up
      _______________

      http://seekingalpha.com/article/840711-ecri-s-annual-wli-growth-rate-at-51-week-high-spy-hit-all-time-high

    • The update for ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index as of August 24, 2012 follows:
      (Source for data can be found at www dot businesscycle dot com / resources)

      Week Ending WLI ..Wly Change..WLI Growth..WLI..WLI Growth
      …………………………………………… Annualized

      6-Jan-12………….121.1……....0.9………-8.6
      13-Jan-12………...123.3……...2.2………-7.6
      20-Jan-12………...122.7……..-0.6………-6.6
      27-Jan-12………...123.0………0.3………-5.3
      3-Feb-12…………..123.6………0.6………-3.9
      10-Feb-12………..123.4……...-0.2………-3.8
      17-Feb-12………..123.1……...-0.3………-3.5
      24-Feb-12………..124.1……….1.0………-3.0
      2-Mar-12…………124.3……….0.2………-2.6
      9-Mar-12…………125.0……….0.4………-1.4
      16-Mar-12………..125.4……….0.4………-0.8
      23-Mar-12………..125.8……….0.4………. 0.0
      30-Mar-12………..126.3……….0.5………. 0.9
      6-Apr-12…………..125.9……...-0.4………..1.7
      13-Apr-12………...123.8……...-2.1………..1.2
      20-Apr-12…………124.0………0.2………. 0.5
      27-Apr-12…………124.6………0.6………-0.1
      4-May-12………….125.4………0.8…….…0.0
      11-May-12………..124.4……...-1.0……….0.4
      18-May-12………..123.0………-1.4……… 0.1
      25-May-12………..122.3………-0.7……...-0.7
      1-Jun-12…………..121.3………-1.0……...-2.0
      8-Jun-12…………..121.9……….0.6………-3.0
      15-Jun-12…………121.2………-0.7………-3.5
      22-Jun-12…………121.7……….0.5………-3.2
      29-Jun-12…………121.9……….0.2………-2.8
      6-Jul-12…………..122.9……….1.0……….-2.7
      13-Jul-12……….…121.8………-1.1……... -2.3
      20-Jul-12…………122.7……….1.1………. -1.7
      27-Jul-12…………122.1………-0.6……… -1.3
      3-Aug-12…………122.5……….0.4………. -1.3
      10-Aug-12……....123.0……….0.5………. -0.4
      17-Aug-12…….....123.3……….0.3………. -0.1

      ECRI WLI Rises—Reuters -- August 24, 2012

      A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate improved slightly, a research group said on Friday.

      The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged up to 123.3 in the week ended August 17 from a revised 123.0 the prior week. That was originally reported as 122.8.

      The index's annualized growth rate rose to -0.1 percent from the prior week's -0.4 percent, which was originally reported as -0.6.

    • Howard Baker is a socialist if I recall. Maybe that will wake up Peter.

    • California's Air Resources Board has a solution too! I wonder if it is a hoax or science?

      Low Carbon Transportation: A Crucial Link to Economic and
      National Security.


      David L. Greene, Ph.D., Senior Fellow,
      Howard H. Baker Jr., Center for Public Policy,
      University of Tennessee, and
      Corporate Fellow, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

      Tuesday, September 4, 2012, 12 - Noon PDT
      Byron Sher Auditorium, 2nd Floor, Cal/EPA Building
      1001 I Street, Sacramento, California

      Petroleum dependence is a serious economic and national security
      problem for the U.S. High levels of consumption and imports,
      coupled with the use of monopoly power in global oil markets and
      a historical lack of alternatives, have imposed significant costs
      on the U.S. economy.

      Today, direct economic costs from petroleum dependence are higher
      than they were during the oil embargoes of the 1970s and are
      estimated to have exceeded $2 trillion since 2005. These costs
      represent wealth transfer out of the country and lost economic
      output due to monopoly pricing and price spikes. (They do not
      account for indirect costs related to congestion, defense, or
      health impacts).

      Reducing petroleum dependence by transitioning to a low carbon
      transportation system can generate hundreds of billions of
      dollars annually in economic and national security benefits for
      the U.S. By greatly increasing energy efficiency and
      substituting hydrogen, electricity and biofuels produced with low
      net greenhouse gas emissions, the U.S. can develop a sustainable
      and diverse transportation system while fostering a crucial link
      to economic and national security.

      Announcement can be viewed at:
      http://www.arb.ca.gov/research/lectures/lectures.htm

    • The update for ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index as of August 17, 2012 follows:
      (Source for data can be found at www dot businesscycle dot com / resources)

      Week Ending WLI ..Wly Change..WLI Growth..WLI..WLI Growth
      …………………………………………… Annualized

      6-Jan-12………….121.1……....0.9………-8.6
      13-Jan-12………...123.3……...2.2………-7.6
      20-Jan-12………...122.7……..-0.6………-6.6
      27-Jan-12………...123.0………0.3………-5.3
      3-Feb-12…………..123.6………0.6………-3.9
      10-Feb-12………..123.4……...-0.2………-3.8
      17-Feb-12………..123.1……...-0.3………-3.5
      24-Feb-12………..124.1……….1.0………-3.0
      2-Mar-12…………124.3……….0.2………-2.6
      9-Mar-12…………125.0……….0.4………-1.4
      16-Mar-12………..125.4……….0.4………-0.8
      23-Mar-12………..125.8……….0.4………. 0.0
      30-Mar-12………..126.3……….0.5………. 0.9
      6-Apr-12…………..125.9……...-0.4………..1.7
      13-Apr-12………...123.8……...-2.1………..1.2
      20-Apr-12…………124.0………0.2………. 0.5
      27-Apr-12…………124.6………0.6………-0.1
      4-May-12………….125.4………0.8…….…0.0
      11-May-12………..124.4……...-1.0……….0.4
      18-May-12………..123.0………-1.4……… 0.1
      25-May-12………..122.3………-0.7……...-0.7
      1-Jun-12…………..121.3………-1.0……...-2.0
      8-Jun-12…………..121.9……….0.6………-3.0
      15-Jun-12…………121.2………-0.7………-3.5
      22-Jun-12…………121.7……….0.5………-3.2
      29-Jun-12…………121.9……….0.2………-2.8
      6-Jul-12…………..122.9……….1.0……….-2.7
      13-Jul-12……….…121.8………-1.1……... -2.3
      20-Jul-12…………122.7……….1.1………. -1.7
      27-Jul-12…………122.1………-0.6……… -1.3
      3-Aug-12…………122.5……….0.4………. -1.3
      10-Aug-12……….122.8……….0.3………. -0.6

      ECRI WLI Ticks Up—Reuters -- August 17, 2012

      A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week, while the annualized growth rate improved but still remained in negative territory, a research group said on Friday.

      The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.8 in the week ended Aug 10 from 122.5 the previous week.

      The index's annualized growth rate improved to minus 0.6 percent from minus 1.1 percent a week earlier.
      _______________


      http://seekingalpha.com/article/816661-ecri-s-annual-wli-growth-rate-at-41-week-high-spy-at-bull-market-high

      • 1 Reply to clcrimmins
      • Kostin, Goldman on CNBC, calling 1250 S and P 500 year end and 1350 next year, sounded like the "fiscal cliff" influence, not much concern for Europe, interesting all the hand wringing over Euro land the past two years is no longer an issue. Could the "fiscal cliff" be the same. Sees earnings at $100 this year and $106 next year, so that's a PE of <13 for next year. Seems awfully low to me. A 20 multiple with a 2% 10 yr T note is also reasonable, 2000 vs 1350. When and if we get through the "new normal" period, stocks will seem cheap. How long is the issue. Not sure selling with a 1350 target next year is worth it, if you believe his forecast. We will need a bunch of tough decisions from Congress next year, and there isn't much confidence based on recent behavior, regardless of who is President.

        Also, Goldman sees further strength in oil price, tight supplies. The two forecasts don't seem consistent, although the oil call is probably shorter term.

    • The update for ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index as of August 10, 2012 follows:
      (Source for data can be found at www dot businesscycle dot com / resources)

      Week Ending WLI ..Wly Change..WLI Growth..WLI..WLI Growth
      …………………………………………… Annualized

      6-Jan-12………….121.1……....0.9………-8.6
      13-Jan-12………...123.3……...2.2………-7.6
      20-Jan-12………...122.7……..-0.6………-6.6
      27-Jan-12………...123.0………0.3………-5.3
      3-Feb-12…………..123.6………0.6………-3.9
      10-Feb-12………..123.4……...-0.2………-3.8
      17-Feb-12………..123.1……...-0.3………-3.5
      24-Feb-12………..124.1……….1.0………-3.0
      2-Mar-12…………124.3……….0.2………-2.6
      9-Mar-12…………125.0……….0.4………-1.4
      16-Mar-12………..125.4……….0.4………-0.8
      23-Mar-12………..125.8……….0.4………. 0.0
      30-Mar-12………..126.3……….0.5………. 0.9
      6-Apr-12…………..125.9……...-0.4………..1.7
      13-Apr-12………...123.8……...-2.1………..1.2
      20-Apr-12…………124.0………0.2………. 0.5
      27-Apr-12…………124.6………0.6………-0.1
      4-May-12………….125.4………0.8…….…0.0
      11-May-12………..124.4……...-1.0……….0.4
      18-May-12………..123.0………-1.4……… 0.1
      25-May-12………..122.3………-0.7……...-0.7
      1-Jun-12…………..121.3………-1.0……...-2.0
      8-Jun-12…………..121.9……….0.6………-3.0
      15-Jun-12…………121.2………-0.7………-3.5
      22-Jun-12…………121.7……….0.5………-3.2
      29-Jun-12…………121.9……….0.2………-2.8
      6-Jul-12…………..122.9……….1.0……….-2.7
      13-Jul-12……….…121.8………-1.1……... -2.3
      20-Jul-12…………122.7……….1.1………. -1.7
      27-Jul-12…………122.1………-0.6……….. -1.3
      3-Aug-12…………122.5……….0.4………. -1.3

      ECRI WLI Growth Flat—Reuters -- August 10, 2012

      A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate remained at a nine-week high, a research group said on Friday.

      The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.5 in the week ended August 3 from 122.1 the previous week. That was originally reported as 122.2.

      The index's annualized growth rate held steady at minus 1.3 percent from a week earlier.


      ECRI Inflation Gauge Rises == The Bond Buyer – August 3, 2012

      U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 100.9 from a downwardly revised 100.7 in June, originally reported as 101.2, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

      "Despite its latest uptick, the USFIG remains below its earlier highs. Thus, U.S. inflation pressures continue to be fairly restrained," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.

    • The update for ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index as of July 20, 2012 follows:
      (Source for data can be found at www dot businesscycle dot com / resources)

      Week Ending WLI ..Wly Change..WLI Growth..WLI..WLI Growth
      …………………………………………… Annualized

      6-Jan-12………….121.1……....0.9………-8.6
      13-Jan-12………...123.3……...2.2………-7.6
      20-Jan-12………...122.7……..-0.6………-6.6
      27-Jan-12………...123.0………0.3………-5.3
      3-Feb-12…………..123.6………0.6………-3.9
      10-Feb-12………..123.4……...-0.2………-3.8
      17-Feb-12………..123.1……...-0.3………-3.5
      24-Feb-12………..124.1……….1.0………-3.0
      2-Mar-12…………124.3……….0.2………-2.6
      9-Mar-12…………125.0……….0.4………-1.4
      16-Mar-12………..125.4……….0.4………-0.8
      23-Mar-12………..125.8……….0.4………. 0.0
      30-Mar-12………..126.3……….0.5………. 0.9
      6-Apr-12…………..125.9……...-0.4………..1.7
      13-Apr-12………...123.8……...-2.1………..1.2
      20-Apr-12…………124.0………0.2………. 0.5
      27-Apr-12…………124.6………0.6………-0.1
      4-May-12………….125.4………0.8…….…0.0
      11-May-12………..124.4……...-1.0……….0.4
      18-May-12………..123.0………-1.4……… 0.1
      25-May-12………..122.3………-0.7……...-0.7
      1-Jun-12…………..121.3………-1.0……...-2.0
      8-Jun-12…………..121.9……….0.6………-3.0
      15-Jun-12…………121.2………-0.7………-3.5
      22-Jun-12…………121.7……….0.5………-3.2
      29-Jun-12…………121.9……….0.2………-2.8
      6-Jul-12…………..122.9……….1.0……….-2.7
      13-Jul-12……….…121.8………-1.1……... -2.3
      20-Jul-12…………122.8……….1.0………. -1.6


      ECRI WLI Rises-- Reuters—July 27, 2012

      A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, as did the annualized growth rate, a research group said on Friday.

      The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.8 in the week ended July 20 from 121.8 the previous week. That was originally reported as 121.9.

      The index's annualized growth rate rose to an eight-week high of minus 1.6 percent from minus 2.3 percent a week earlier.>>>>>

    • California reported that its deficit is $1 billion less than forecast because of the new IPOs. I wonder how I can invest with those who can buy houses for $111,000 each and then rent them for $2,500 a month. Whenever I bid on a house in the SF Bay Area I was told that it wasn't on the market for sale even though it was listed in the multiple-listing reports. Some special deals for special people I guess.

    • The update for ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index as of June 8, 2012 follows:
      (Source for data can be found at www dot businesscycle dot com / resources)

      Week Ending WLI ..Wly Change..WLI Growth..WLI..WLI Growth
      …………………………………………… Annualized

      4-Nov-11………...122.3……….0.2………-8.5
      11-Nov-11……….122.0………-0.3……...-7.8
      18-Nov-11……….122.2……….0.2………-7.4
      25-Nov-11……….120.8……...-1.4………-7.8
      2-Dec-11……… …122.4…… …1.6………-7.7
      9-Dec-11………….122.3……..-0.1………-7.5
      16-Dec-11………..121.3……..-1.0……....-7.7
      23-Dec-11………..120.9……..-0.4………-7.6
      30-Dec-11………..120.2……..-0.5………-8.2
      6-Jan-12………….121.1……....0.9………-8.6
      13-Jan-12………...123.3……...2.2………-7.6
      20-Jan-12………...122.7……..-0.6………-6.6
      27-Jan-12………...123.0………0.3………-5.3
      3-Feb-12…………..123.6………0.6………-3.9
      10-Feb-12………..123.4……...-0.2………-3.8
      17-Feb-12………..123.1……...-0.3………-3.5
      24-Feb-12………..124.1……….1.0………-3.0
      2-Mar-12…………124.3……….0.2………-2.6
      9-Mar-12…………125.0……….0.4………-1.4
      16-Mar-12………..125.4……….0.4………-0.8
      23-Mar-12………..125.8……….0.4………. 0.0
      30-Mar-12………..126.3……….0.5………. 0.9
      6-Apr-12…………..125.9……...-0.4………..1.7
      13-Apr-12………...123.8……...-2.1………..1.2
      20-Apr-12…………124.0………0.2………. 0.5
      27-Apr-12…………124.6………0.6………-0.1
      4-May-12………….125.4………0.8…….…0.0
      11-May-12………..124.4……...-1.0……….0.4
      18-May-12………..123.0………-1.4……… 0.1
      25-May-12………..122.3………-0.7……...-0.7
      1-Jun-12…………..121.3………-1.0……...-2.0
      8-Jun-12…………..121.9……….0.6………-3.0

      WLI Growth Falls-- Reuters—June 15, 2012

      A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate fell, a research group said on Friday.

      The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 121.9 in the week ended June 8 from 121.3 the previous week. That was originally reported as 121.6.

      The index's annualized growth rate fell to -3.0 percent, its lowest since late February of this year, from -2.2 percent a week earlier. That was originally reported as -2.0 percent.
      >>>>>

      http://seekingalpha.com/article/662171-ecri-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-but-growth-rate-continues-lower

    • The update for ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index as of June 1, 2012 follows:
      (Source for data can be found at www dot businesscycle dot com / resources)

      Week Ending WLI ..Wly Change..WLI Growth..WLI..WLI Growth
      …………………………………………… Annualized

      4-Nov-11………...122.3……….0.2………-8.5
      11-Nov-11……….122.0………-0.3……...-7.8
      18-Nov-11……….122.2……….0.2………-7.4
      25-Nov-11……….120.8……...-1.4………-7.8
      2-Dec-11……… …122.4…… …1.6………-7.7
      9-Dec-11………….122.3……..-0.1………-7.5
      16-Dec-11………..121.3……..-1.0……....-7.7
      23-Dec-11………..120.9……..-0.4………-7.6
      30-Dec-11………..120.2……..-0.5………-8.2
      6-Jan-12………….121.1……....0.9………-8.6
      13-Jan-12………...123.3……...2.2………-7.6
      20-Jan-12………...122.7……..-0.6………-6.6
      27-Jan-12………...123.0………0.3………-5.3
      3-Feb-12…………..123.6………0.6………-3.9
      10-Feb-12………..123.4……...-0.2………-3.8
      17-Feb-12………..123.1……...-0.3………-3.5
      24-Feb-12………..124.1……….1.0………-3.0
      2-Mar-12…………124.3……….0.2………-2.6
      9-Mar-12…………125.0……….0.4………-1.4
      16-Mar-12………..125.4……….0.4………-0.8
      23-Mar-12………..125.8……….0.4………. 0.0
      30-Mar-12………..126.3……….0.5………. 0.9
      6-Apr-12…………..125.9……...-0.4………..1.7
      13-Apr-12………...123.8……...-2.1………..1.2
      20-Apr-12…………124.0………0.2………. 0.5
      27-Apr-12…………124.6………0.6………-0.1
      4-May-12………….125.4………0.8…….…0.0
      11-May-12………..124.4……...-1.0……….0.4
      18-May-12………..123.0………-1.4……… 0.1
      25-May-12………..122.3………-0.7……...-0.7
      1-Jun-12…………..121.6……….-0.7……...-0.2


      WLI Drops Again -- Reuters—June 8, 2012

      A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week and the growth rate weakened on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday.

      The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 121.6 in the week ended June 1 from 122.3 the previous week.

      The index's annualized growth rate fell to minus 2.0 percent from a revised minus 0.7 percent a week earlier. It was originally reported at minus 0.6 percent.
      >>>>>

    • View More Messages
 
DNR
5.83-0.01(-0.17%)Jul 2 4:07 PMEDT