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Denbury Resources Inc. Message Board

  • keltus1952 keltus1952 Aug 2, 2012 10:23 AM Flag

    EPS report...my thoughts.

    Revenue about flat with year ago because of realized oil prices mainly.

    *...Production up 16% vs same 1/4 last year. Oil is over 95% of product sales.

    * cash flow about $362 million or bout .93 per share

    ***my thoughts.....Stock is trading at about 4 X cash flow (annualized) which makes it a very good value. Debt is about 2 X cash flow which is a conservative measure. A number up around 4-5 X cash flow is considered very aggressive.

    Sorry about no EPS number, I don't really look at it. Cash flow rules in this business IMHO.

    Kel......will continue to hold DNR.

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    • I don't concern myself with day to day pricing and have owned DNR for 11 years. If you have a longer horizon, it makes sense to me. If you're a trader/short term guy, I have no thoughts.

    • re dnr and the q2 earnings report looked reasonably well. production grew 4% qtr to qtr and yoy grew 14%. Mostly oil production so benefitting from higher oil prices and premium for LLC but discount for bakken.
      anyone know why this one is acting weak and not bouncing with higher oil prices since it is mainly oil producer?

    • Using SD as a comparison for debt.....

      SD will have about $750 annual cash flow with about $3.5 billion of debt for a ratio of almost $5 of debt for $1 of cash flow.

      DNR $2 of debt for $1 of cash flow.

      Where do you want your $$ to be?

      Thoughts.....Kel

    • Agreed. I am holding on. Macro Euro worries + the inventories for NG below analysts expectations coming together for all in all a bad day. BUT you know full well that NG is not going to stay where it is right now.
      Smart money is accumulating in prep for winter...........So ho humm....Just another day in the trenches.
      There is always next week. At this level DNR is a very good risk vs. reward. JMHO D

    • Below, looks like they played accounting games with LOE vs DDA. The enterprise value is $8.6 billion and the PV10 at 12/31/11 was $10.6 billion, $96 oil price. Oil price for 2Q was $95. DNR still seems a good value, if not a great value, at $90 oil, 14 to 18% increase in production this year, primarily oil, not many cos can make that claim. As is the case with most e and p s, getting the macro right is critical. I'm assuming $90 oil for the next few years, but it could be much lower if global growth weakens. Seems there are a several oily e and p s that appear to be good values at $90. Seems the market is wary of Euro land and China and other emergers. Seems DNR is a $30 value at $90 oil.

      Q2'12 Bottom Line – Denbury reported recurring Q2’12 EPS/CFPS of $0.35/$0.97 versus our $0.35/$0.87 estimates and the Street consensus of $0.34/$0.84. Total output and crude oil price realizations were in-line with our model, while lower-than- expected per barrel LOE and G&A costs offset higher DD&A figures. DNR reclassified some of its operating leases during the quarter, with associated costs now accounted for in DD&A vs. LOE previously, leading to the disparity from our estimates. Thus, EPS came in-line with our estimate, while higher than expected DD&A and deferred taxes led to the CFPS beat.

      Production Guidance Unchanged – Denbury still expects FY’12 production to average 69.4–74.4 MBOE/d, implying total growth of 14-18%, adjusted for asset sales. As stated previously, mgmt expects output to come in at the higher end of the

 
DNR
6.52+0.050(+0.77%)Jan 29 4:00 PMEST

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