Market, listened to Buffet yesterday, the same message as usual. But one thing was important, imo, he said he and Munger haven't talked about "macro" issues in years. Might be an overstatement, but it does emphasize all of the wasted time, energy on CNBC and other places, trying to figure out when we implode or whatever. In the meantime, Buffet is trying to find companies that will grow at a reasonable rate for the next couple of decades. That is Buffet's genius, not very complicated but very disciplined. Most individuals can do the same.
Listening to all of the economists, still think about the quip, they see what happens in reality and try to explain it in theory. If they were that good at forecasting, they wouldn't be working as economists. I really don't think anyone can forecast well. The pundits are scrambling, trying to rationalize maybe a different outcome. About the time they all are on board with a new reality, the end will be in sight.
Went to a Schwab affiliated co pres last night, on hedged equity, probably a good approach to get somewhat less than market returns on the upside with downside protection. They did well in the 08 downdraft, loss a few percent vs the much bigger number. But, it just appears that listening to people, they are still fearful and bearish, and possibly fighting the last war. Even with our warts, we are still the envy of the world.
The new jobs, up 236k, that's going to help a bunch.
Everyone expects a pullback but they have for a while. I own everything I want to own for a couple of years, out of cash. I don't have a clue what moves it higher or lower. Think I'll take a break for a while, the weather is great in N TX.
The pundits are trying to explain away the market strength. Market's at 7% earnings yield, could be 5%, Dow 20,000. Most have focused on how low it could go again vs how much higher. Exuberance is probably with us again. Curious how we haven't heard "sequester" much this week. The headline now, "the lost decade" in stocks is over?? In the meantime, Buffet is reading 10ks, trying to figure out another company he could buy at a reasonable price.
Druckenmiller on CNBC this a m. calling for disaster when the Fed cleans up the balance sheet. Problem with that call, it may be in 10 years or never. Seems the market will begin to quiet the gloom and doomers, whether they should be ignored or not. There are things to buy but not as good values as a couple of months ago. The MPO report after the market closes, and cc in the morning.
CS put a $60s target on PDCE, Wattenberg and Utica assets.