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American Express Company Message Board

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 Oct 27, 2008 12:39 PM Flag

    AXP Chart Evaluation & Buy Mention

    AXP (Friday close at 24.05)

    AXP showed a lot of resiliency this past week by being one of only a handful of stocks that was able to close higher on Friday than last week's close. In addition, the stock got down to a major 11-year support level and was able to hold itself above it and rally, generating a signal that the downside could be over.

    AXP is also a well-run blue chip company that will likely be among the survivors of this economic debacle. As such, it is one of the first companies where speculative money will flow to when the market has turned.

    On a weekly closing basis, support is major between 21.49 and 22.42 (19.55 and 21.18 on an intra-week basis) with two major weekly closing lows having been made between those levels over the past 11 years. Additionally, the close made last week at 23.33 (20.50 intra-week) must also be considered support. On a daily closing basis, there is strong support at 23.15 where a double bottom has been built. On a weekly closing basis, there is absolutely no resistance until the 31.50 level is reached. At that level you can find a previous high weekly close at 3152 going back to Jan99 as well as the 200-month MA at that same price. On a daily closing basis, though, there is decent resistance at 26.39 and strong resistance up at 28.19 where a previous high close of consequence is seen as well as the 20-day MA.

    AXP also showed strong resiliency this past week in spite of the indexes being under strong pressure. The stock has a weekly low at 22.02 and did not get close to the low seen 2 weeks ago at 20.50. It is evident on the charts that $20 represents a level that is not likely to get taken out and with the stock near that level, it presents an opportunity that offers a good risk/reward trade.

    Purchases of AXP between 22.43 and 22.90 and placing a stop loss at 20.40 and having an objective of 31.50 would offer at least a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

    My rating on the trade is a 7.5 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).

    My name is Tony and I am a chartist. I have been trading for close to 30 years. In the 80's I was a broker/trader/analyst for Merrill Lynch, Dean Witter, and Pru-Bache.

    I offer an inexpensive chart evaluation service on stocks of your choice through membership to my website and message board.

    “When or where do I get in? When or where do I get out? What is the trend for the next week? For the next 3 months? Where are the strong buyers and where are the strong sellers (based on past action)? What is the risk/reward ratio on my trade (based on chart objectives)? What looks good right now (chart-wise)?”

    These are some of the questions that I try to answer through chart evaluation.

    I offer a monthly service that includes a weekly newsletter with chart evaluations on 4 stocks that I believe have attractive chart patterns and good risk/reward ratios as well as 1 chart evaluation per week on a stock of your choice. The service also includes membership to a message board where daily updates on all stocks and stock indexes are given. Cost of the service is only $27.95 per month.

    If you are interested in learning more about the service, please check out my website address on the Yahoo message board profile area.

    If the paid service is not something you are interested in, I do distribute a “free” newsletter every week that gives a chart evaluation on the stock indexes. If anyone would like to receive it please send me an email to the email address shown in the profile area.

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    • I did my chart evaluation this afternoon and this is what I stated on my message board.

      AXP worries me a lot. The stock closed in a new daily closing low below the previous daily closing low of 23.08. Though the stock did not make new lows on an intra-day basis, in fact it held above a good intra-day support level at 22.00, it is evident with the close today, that if the stock does not generate a reversal tomorrow with a close above 23.08, that it is heading lower. As it is, the financial stocks seem to be taking it on the chin once again and seem to be leading the way down. This stock will be on my list of possible liquidations tomorrow if it shows no strength. A close below 22.00 would be a negative.

    • Thanks....I will set my exit point at $30.00 and see what happens....

      If it works out...I may be interested in your service!

    • Though I don't use fundamentals to make decisions, it is always nice to know what they are so you can better explain the actions on the chart.

      As far as your question as to how the stock is treating me, I would have to say pretty good.

      I had not traded AXP prior to August 28th of this year. Since then I have traded the stock on 5 occasions plus the one I am in now.

      Per 100 shares with commissions being taken out here are the results of my trading AXP.

      Loss of $44 - Short trade
      Profit of $64 - Short trade
      Profit of $736 - Long trade
      Loss of $98 - Long trade
      Profit of 1873 - Long trade.

      That is an end result of a profit of $2531 per 100 shares after commissions and losses have been subtracted. Having made $25.31 per share in a trading range of $15 is pretty good, wouldn't you say?

      The present position I have I am averaged in at 23.37. The stock is trading at 22.40 at 3:00pm today. That means that I have a loss in this trade at this moment of $186 per 100 shares (2 mentions). If you substract from the total profit of $2521 you still get a profit of $2345.

      Still not bad.

      Thanks for the warm feelings and critical comment.

    • Charting has stop loss orders ready to pull in case the chart indications don't hold up. Why is someone a putz for making a charting call that you have to pull out of?

      Risk a little, put probability in to play, and you can do very well.

    • You're out of your god damn mind to buy 1 share of AXP! You must just have money to burn if your putting it in this POS company. I want your money!

      • 1 Reply to ospreys19
      • Osprey, you should have been a comedian. You are good at it.

        By the way, I am still in the stock as I decided to pull my stop loss yesterday. I like the chart quite a bit and though a drop down to the 23.00 level is possible, today's action in the indexes is very positive.

        A close today in the DOW around 8852 will be a win for the bulls and a loss for the bears. Even if it closes lower, it is not a negative but simply means the indexes are going back down to test the lows with a possible low next week in the DOW at 8168.

        Nonetheless, with President Elect Obama talking today in about 10 minutes (2:00pm EST) with his group of economic advisors, it is likely they will say something positive and that could grab the imagination of the traders for the future.

        FYI, I don't have 1 share, I bought 600 shares. It may not be much but I am diversified into about 10 different stocks...all long. I bought most of them yesterday, including STP at 12.59 (now trading 14.30).

        Good Luck to you, be sure to try Vegas, I am sure you would be a big hit.

    • I repurchased AXP today at 25.59. I have a stop loss at 24.75 but if I get stopped out I will re-purchase again around 23.20.

      Objective on this trade is 31.60. I am risking $84 to make $601. It is a 7-1 risk/reward ratio.

      My name is Tony and I am a chartist. I have been trading for close to 30 years. In the 80's I was a broker/trader/analyst for Merrill Lynch, Dean Witter, and Pru-Bache.

      I offer an inexpensive chart evaluation service on stocks of your choice through membership to my website and message board.

      “When or where do I get in? When or where do I get out? What is the trend for the next week? For the next 3 months? Where are the strong buyers and where are the strong sellers (based on past action)? What is the risk/reward ratio on my trade (based on chart objectives)? What looks good right now (chart-wise)?”

      These are some of the questions that I try to answer through chart evaluation.

      I offer a monthly service that includes a weekly newsletter with chart evaluations on 4 stocks that I believe have attractive chart patterns and good risk/reward ratios as well as 1 chart evaluation per week on a stock of your choice. The service also includes membership to a message board where daily updates on all stocks and stock indexes are given. Cost of the service is only $27.95 per month.

      If you are interested in learning more about the service, please check out my website address on the Yahoo message board profile area.

      If the paid service is not something you are interested in, I do distribute a “free” newsletter every week that gives a chart evaluation on the stock indexes. If anyone would like to receive it please send me an email to the email address shown in the profile area.

    • I liquidated my purchases of AXP at 22.63 today at 30.10. Profit on the trade of $7.47 per share minus commissions.

      It was a 30% profit in one week.

      I gave it to you in advance here on this message board and gave it to you with stop loss levels as well as objectives.

      FYI:

      I also got out of the following stocks that I purchased about a week ago.

      MT purchased at 21.43........out at 30.50
      BA purchased at 42.63........out at 53.78
      VLO purchased at 17.93.......out at 20.53
      TRA purchased at 18.20.......out at 23.10
      SGR purchased at 15.63.......out at 18.70
      RIO purchased at 11.72.......out at 14.93
      WDC purchased at 14.70.......out at 17.53

      All of these mentions were given last week on my message board. All with stop losses (none of which were hit) and with these objectives.

      You should try out my service. I do offer a 2-week free trial.

      Check out the website address in the Yahoo profile area.

    • It is getting to be evident that there are very few people on this message board that are taking me seriously as the only two responses to my original posting and one of them was garbage.

      Nonetheless, I did give everyone here a heads up on a good purchase "before the fact" and I did include an entry point, a stop loss point, and an objective. So far, the trade is going perfectly as I entered the trade at 22.63 and now the stock is trading at 27.50. I had originally stated the stop loss should be at 20.40 but then raised the stop to 21.90. Either way, neither level was seen after the trade was put on.

      With today's positive close in the stock as well as in the DOW, the probabilities of AXP getting up at least to my objective of 31.50 have increased greatly.

      If that happens, the math on this trade is very good as that will mean a profit of $9 per share or a profit of close to 40% on the trade.

      I have been posting the updates here that I post on my own message board on this stock but I have seen no further response.

      Since the interest seems to be minimal, I will not post again until I liquidate the trade.

      I was hoping to get some people interested in at least trying my service out, especially since I do give a "free" two-week trial period.

      For what I do and know, the $27.95 monthly fee I charge is a bargain. Nonetheless, "you can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink".

      Good Luck to all.

    • AXP is presently trading at a short-term pivotal level. The 20-day MA is currently at 25.90 and the most recent daily high close is at 26.39.

      If the stock can close above 26.39 today, both of these will be broken and a buy signal will be given.

      On an intra-day basis, the 27.08 level is also resistance as it was the intra-day high during the last rally.

      Nonetheless, a close above 26.39 would likely generate a rally up to the 31.64 level.

      Since I see no support in the chart, on a daily closing basis, until the 23.33 level (22.02 on an intra-day basis) is reached, I may get out of the positions I purchased at 22.63 today or tomorrow.

      Nonetheless, this is the end of the month and there will be strong "window dressing" seen today and tomorrow. The big hedge and mutual funds need to show something positive on the books.

      In looking at the monthly charts, the lowest monthly close in the last 10 year, to this date, has been 25.44. That makes that particular level very important for Friday.

      I do believe the stock will hold these levels today and tomorrow and even generate a rally before the end of close tomorrow. On the monthly chart there are a couple of other levels that also have some importance. Those levels are 27.29 and 29.09. Though those are nowhere near as important as the 25.44 level, they may be looked at by the traders.

      Certainly whereever the stock closes on Friday will be important in some way as the charts are being used to trade these stocks, especially when getting a good handle on the value of any stock, due to the fundamental problems currently being seen, is so very difficult at this time.

    • Very impressive day in the indexes with likely follow through for tomorrow. Keep a close eye on the DOW at 9282 as that is strong resistance. A close tomorrow above 9256 could thrust the index up to the recent high at 9789. Even then, a close above that level would be a breakout above the 20-day MA and would make the 50-day MA up at 10300 a possible objective.

      With this week being an end of the month, there is likely to be a lot of window dressing happening, especially with such a bad month as it has been. It is not likely the indexes will sell off much this week.

      As far as AXP is concerned, here is my end-of-the-day comment on my message board.

      AXP had a classic reversal day today with higher highs, lower lows, and a close above yesterday's high. Such a chart formation coming in the heals of a strong and successful re-test of the support at 22.02 (today's low was 22.34) should generate further strong upside. The 26.39 level is quite pivotal as the 20-day MA as well as the most recent high close are both at that level. A close tomorrow above 26.39 would be a breakout and a strong buy signal as well. A close above that level tomorrow would thrust the stock up to the 31.94 level at least (previous intra-day high), and perhaps as high as 33.00 where the 50-day MA is at.

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AXP
88.00-2.91(-3.20%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT

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