the short interest was a "normal" 110k as of Oct 15 2012. It went up to 340K as of Nov 1 2012 and has steadily gone up since then to the last reported 547K. That is a high number relative to the free float (Hall and Duncan each own 1M shares out of the 8.1M total).
the highest the price the stockwas during this rise in short interest was $12.50 and there was one dividend since then. The stock was as low as $9.25. this means the majority of these new shorts are basically flat. All the selling is shorting. they thought the company would discontinue the dividend in 2013. With the highest dividend tax rate going from 15% to 20%, the company decided to continue the dividend despite not "earning" the dividend.
they are now in their best qtr and coin certs are at a record. the company raised prices by 10%. they are expanding in Europe and Asia. Backlog is abnormally high. They are even hiring new graders. The US Mint is producing record numbers of gold and silver coins.
I give the shorters 1 more qtr before they bail en masse. They will be blindsided by record revenue and sales in the next report. A short covering squeeze could propel the stock to new multi-year highs.
Good post dbtunr. I agree, but I doubt the Shorts will "bail en masse" in time. Shorts will ride CLCT up before they flame out. I've been having fun with Shorts in Dell and HLF. I still think CLCT should go private.
I don't think the shorts did their homework. They figured the dividend would be eliminated or drastically cut and that sales would be down. None of that is happening. The next earnings report will be the big tell. It gets expensive to stay short a stock with an 11% yield