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Concord Communications (CCRD) Message Board

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  • Fish2026 Fish2026 Oct 9, 2000 11:54 AM Flag

    Time to buy here at 8 not at 23

    How about an inteligent discussion of concords software products and markets?

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    • Would love to hear someone tell me about their
      products and competition. I just went on financials and
      positive cash flow plus projected earnings after
      discounting the missed quarter. So all those that bought
      based on the products please let us know what you think
      is happening? I know Landis bought at one time, not
      sure what he is doing now

      • 2 Replies to tromyjft98
      • I also bought initially just off financials...
        big mistake. In @ $25 originally. Listened to
        conference call and bought more @ 8 7/8 and will sell my
        original shares by year end to get tax loss (assuming it
        recovers a bit). Here is what I took from conference
        call:

        Products:
        Network Health - identifies problems with Network but not
        in real time
        Live Health - real time monitoring
        of network, just introduced one month into the last
        quarter (2 months of sales - $2 million)
        Application
        Health - product for the ASP market which has not
        developed ($0.7 million - last qtr)

        Competition -

        Micromuse, and a couple of smaller companies

        Market -

        Service Providers - PSInet using them in initial pilot in
        Europe
        Enterprise - corporate clients
        Telecos - sales evaporated
        in this market - expected $3 to $4 million, received
        less than $0.5 million, future guidance assumes
        minimal contribution from this area.
        Had Cisco as
        customer, analyst claimed Cisco chose someone else's
        product (a company named IP switch - Concord stated that
        they had not heard of this company), Concord stated
        that they had an all day meeting with Cisco the day
        after the CC (Friday).

        Guidance -
        Next qtr.
        - earnings equal to or slightly above this
        quarter's, revenue - $25 to $27 million. Next year - $0.60
        to $0.70 earnings, $120-$130 million
        revenue.

        Financials -
        Days outstanding grew to 75-80 days - I
        consider this a negative.
        Cash is about $58
        million.

        Reason I am staying in. The main reason is the
        successful intro. of Live Health (real time Network
        monitoring solution). This seems to have potential in my
        opinion, of out selling Network Health. Continued growth
        in other areas outside Telecos, and lack of reliance
        on Telecos in projections. $58 million
        cash.

        Good luck

      • Kevin Landis-

        I wasaw you on CNBC tout this stock as your single best idea for 2000 back in Feb. What do you think now?

        PS-You recommended it at around $50 bucks

    • Doesn't appear that too many shorts have covered yet. Maybe at the close. Margin calls probably off seeting covering so far.