Would love to hear someone tell me about their products and competition. I just went on financials and positive cash flow plus projected earnings after discounting the missed quarter. So all those that bought based on the products please let us know what you think is happening? I know Landis bought at one time, not sure what he is doing now
I also bought initially just off financials... big mistake. In @ $25 originally. Listened to conference call and bought more @ 8 7/8 and will sell my original shares by year end to get tax loss (assuming it recovers a bit). Here is what I took from conference call:
Products: Network Health - identifies problems with Network but not in real time Live Health - real time monitoring of network, just introduced one month into the last quarter (2 months of sales - $2 million) Application Health - product for the ASP market which has not developed ($0.7 million - last qtr)
Micromuse, and a couple of smaller companies
Service Providers - PSInet using them in initial pilot in Europe Enterprise - corporate clients Telecos - sales evaporated in this market - expected $3 to $4 million, received less than $0.5 million, future guidance assumes minimal contribution from this area. Had Cisco as customer, analyst claimed Cisco chose someone else's product (a company named IP switch - Concord stated that they had not heard of this company), Concord stated that they had an all day meeting with Cisco the day after the CC (Friday).
Guidance - Next qtr. - earnings equal to or slightly above this quarter's, revenue - $25 to $27 million. Next year - $0.60 to $0.70 earnings, $120-$130 million revenue.
Financials - Days outstanding grew to 75-80 days - I consider this a negative. Cash is about $58 million.
Reason I am staying in. The main reason is the successful intro. of Live Health (real time Network monitoring solution). This seems to have potential in my opinion, of out selling Network Health. Continued growth in other areas outside Telecos, and lack of reliance on Telecos in projections. $58 million cash.