It is tough to understand these so called
"professionals" and the way they cover their over-paid butts with
their upgrades/downgrades. Formulas....and politics do
play alot in this terrific game, but solid and
competent is just that. I have had some real dogs, but
these cowboys are not amateurs at running a company. I
sold and bought on the last split cycle and sold a
week or so ago when gntx just "blipped" over
31......very cool profit. I hope to jump in and ride another
cycle like that for the 3rd time.
Believe in peanut
butter but not in pirates or analysts.
The downgrade doesn't seem to be affecting the
stock price yet.
look at the history of GNTX's upgrades and downgrades
you'll see 2 downgrades this year from CIBC Oppenheimer.
On Jan 5 they downgraded from "strong buy" to "hold"
and today they downgrade from "buy" to "hold." Did
they change it to 'buy' sometime after Jan 5 and not
Also, between their Jan 5
downgrade and now, the stock is up 20%.
Back in '96
I had an account with Cowen and Co. They
recommended KLAC at 45 and had a buy on AMAT at 60. Then the
bottom dropped out of the semis and the stocks went to
18 and 25 respectively. I read my free reports every
week and never saw anything on either company for a
year. Then a report comes out that Cowen is "starting"
the semis with buy recommendations. They had never
cut the stocks to hold or sell and had never said
they were discontinuing coverage. It was if they were
pretending that there had been no previous
In one of Peter Lynch's books, he mentions his
favorite analyst report which stated: "Due to the recent
bankruptcy we are removing this company from our recommended
That about sums it up.
GNTX is acting very strange based on historic
you wonder if something's going on that
we're not aware of, or maybe they're further along in
the window development than they're letting on. I
like this action, but it is befuddling!
OT: Go Wings!!!!!!!
Well, I did sell some of my stock this morning
(about 25%). Stock is now trading at highest absolute
valuation levels since early '94. It's still reasonable on
a RELATIVE valuation basis. But, I have to believe
that it will take a breather. Just hope I don't lose
the other shares I sold calls against. I could always
buy them back and will make money on them anywhere
below $33. But the stock action is even starting to
I am also long and medium term bullish but feel
the stock is about six months ahead of itself. I also
will not sell for tax purposes and also sold June 30
calls a while ago. If the stock moves up to 32+ I will
probably sell more calls against my remaining position
(either 30s or 35s). If the stock moves to 28- I will
cover my calls and wait for the stock to move higher
before selling calls again.
bullish long-term. I just think it's a little
much to ask for more appreciation over the short and
intermediate term. I wouldn't be surprised if the stock is
still at $30 at year end. If you consider that they
will likely earn $1.05-$1.10 in '00 and you want to
put a 25 multiple on it, you get to $27-$28. A 30
multiple (which would be slightly high) would produce a
stock at $32-33.
But I can't sell it since I
don't see anything wrong fundamentally and there are
some potentially big catalysts looking forward (EC
windows, the GPS mirror). Also don't like to sell because
of taxes and the compounding effect of having the
tax-deferred investment grow. I did sell a few June 30 calls
against my position and unless the stock runs bigtime,
they will either expire worthless or I'll buy 'em back
for 50 cents or a dollar.
If you want the latest research report on this
stock take a click
They have all the past reports too. I don't know about
you but I always see something important that I
didn't know about when I skim over the reports. It can
be helpful in evaluating a stock and its
Also, here is the link to an invaluable resource for
FREE REAL TIME QUOTES.----
You can access quotes for GNTX in real time without
the 15 minute wait of other systems. Why should
Brokers and big shots have a 15 minute advantage over
This is a link you'll really be glad you had on days
when your stocks are trading crazy.