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Templeton Emerging Markets Inco Message Board

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  • mdenn101 mdenn101 Nov 20, 2003 11:42 AM Flag

    If The Dollar Goes Down A Lot More....

    It is up nicely from it's lows, which leaves me wishing that I had bought more earlier, but it is nowhere near it's 5 year highs http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?p=BHP&tag=1 even though the prices for it's products are much higher than when the stock traded at $25/share. BHP and RTP are the largest and second largest mining companies in the world respectively. I don't think that I am smart or lucky enough to know which metals will continue to rise, so I play the falling dollar and rising Chinese demand through the large diversified mining companies. If we continue to see a shift in investor interest from financial assets to tangible assets, all of these firms will prosper. Even with the weakness of 2000-2002, the Dow still sits at 12 times it's 1982 level, while, adjusted for inflation, commodities are still historically cheap. I am betting that the bull market in commodities and the bear market in paper assets has several years to play out.

    By the way, I forgot to mention US firms that derive much of their revenue from foreign sales as a play on the falling buck. My favorite has been Altria, but it has risen recently.

 
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