Hmm, earnings have been out for 6-7 hrs now and no discussion here. Sounds like we have a whole lot of speculators around here and not many who care about the longer-term picture.
Revenue up sequentially ~20%, loss down ~25%, and that included $5M RIF costs. Assuming that this is behind them and the trends remain in place you are looking at sub-$18M losses in Q1'12 and sub-$10M by the end of the year. Barring any major disruption in the marketplace these are manageable trends.
The most significant concern is the ever-declining backlog, and only six new bookings. I am away from my historical information, but it seems that they shipped A LOT more instruments in Q4 than usual (17 vs 7-8 in Q3). On one hand the positive is that orders keep coming in, which seems that there is SOME demand in the market place for their tool. On the other hand the declining backlog does not bode well. This is probably one of the bigger commercial risks to PACB at this time, as well as what OxNano says at AGBT. Anything close to full genome sequencing and PACB all of a sudden is in serious hot water.
My connection is slow as molasses, anything of note on the conference call?
You don't have to be a long-term investor to discuss long-term trends. And a quarter or even a year ain't exactly long term :-) I have no position in PACB and no plans for one at this time, just keeping an eye on them.
The backlog or lack of one is a major concern, but academic spending was cautious due to NIH budgetary concerns. Nomura put out a survey and PACB was going to get surprisingly more money coming their way in'12 than all others on a y/y basis, so that is a big plus especially from these levels. For some reason the call was at 3 pm rather than after the market so I didn't hear the call. If you have a conference call link, please post.